Small Craft Advisory 849, NWS Anchorage, AK

510 
FZAK51 PAFC 241207
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250300-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW 170 NM SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
ASHORE NEAR PORT ALICE THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE
TO 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AT 1009 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATE SUN NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-250300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 45 KT 
OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 30 KT 
OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-250300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-250300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-250300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-250300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S WIND 20 KT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS BECOMING NE 15 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-250300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-250300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT SHIFTING TO SW 20 KT DURING THE MORNING. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-250300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-250300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE REASONABLE. SYNOPTIC FORECAST TRENDS
THROUGH 84 HRS(MON AFTERNOON) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE FASTER ON THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA
SUN AND MON AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE
AK PEN/SW MAINLAND MON AFTERNOON. A RIDGE AFFECTING THE MAINLAND WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO BREAK DOWN...SO WOULD LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER
FRONTAL MOVEMENT AS PER THE NAM/GFS.

.ANALYSIS...
.UPPER LEVELS...THE STACKED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES EAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF A
SHARPENING WAVE WEST OF 150W SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. A HIGH MOVES TO
OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
RIDGING WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF EASTWARD MOVING
TROUGH...INCREASINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS
SAT AND SUN.

SURFACE...
THIS AFTERNOON A STACKED AND WEAKENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BRAND WEAKENED AS IT
MOVED WEST AND BROUGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND AND SOME SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
PROVIDED IN INSULATING BLANKET AND HELPED MODERATE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. FAIR SKIES WITH LIGHTER
NORTHERLY FLOW WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND. COLD AIR FLOWING
OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND INTERACTED WITH THE WARMER BERING SEA WATER
AND BROUGHT MILDLY UNSTABLE COLD CELL CU/SC TO THE AK PEN AND EASTERN
BERING SEA. A LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BROUGHT WINDY
CONDITIONS AND SOME RAIN TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LOCAL GAP FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
MARINE LAYER OVER THE NORTHERN INLET SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND
COULD RESULT IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GULF. A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
OVER KODIAK/WESTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WAVE SAT MOVES TO OVER THE KENAI PEN...FOR NOW THINKING MAINLY CLOUDS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW TO FOLLOW.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HOWEVER TRANSLATE INTO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AK PEN AS COLD AIR FLOWING OFF THE MAINLAND
GATHERS MOISTURE AND FORMS CLOUDS.

ALEUTIANS...
A WEAKENING LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES SE AND WEAKENS.
A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT WILL BRING
SOUTHERLY GALES AND RAIN TO THE WEST ALEUTIANS...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE SUN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WHILE THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL RETREAT UP INTO
THE ARCTIC...THE EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS MUCH LIKE THE CURRENT ONE.
BROAD TROUGHING OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL SEND PERIODIC FRONTS
WEAKENING OVER THE ALEUTIANS WHILE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF AND DRY COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 127 128 172 176 411 351 352
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 12