Small Craft Advisory 802, NWS Anchorage, AK

877 
FZAK51 PAFC 090019
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW 120 NM NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL  
MOVE TO 190 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AT 994 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND MOVES TO 100 NM
EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AT 993 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-091500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 40 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-091500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ125-091500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR 
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-091500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ130-091500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-091500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT...INCREASING TO SE 30 KT S OF DANGEROUS 
CAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-091500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   

$$

PKZ140-091500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF 
KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-091500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

552 
FZAK51 PAFC 091242
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 996 MB LOW DEVELOPS 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND SAT MORNING
AND MOVES TO 120 NM EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AT THE SAME STRENGTH SUN
MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST FRI MORNING
AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-100300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 45 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-100300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT S OF NAKED ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-100300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-100300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-100300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-100300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT
EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
8 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-100300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
415 PM AKST WED NOV 7 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON...YIELDING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
AS THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE OTHER FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CURRENTLY ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDS NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM THE LOW AND IS
NOW LOCATED OVER THE AKPEN AND FAR WESTERN GULF ALASKA...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND AKPEN...WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT
LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A 110 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
THE INITIAL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON
THURSDAY. THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL THEN FORM ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AKPEN...APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO
KODIAK ISLAND...WHICH WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
AS THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK ON FRIDAY AS THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES TOWARD SOUTHWEST AK AND THE NEXT FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL AK. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY
SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS AS WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES. GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY ALONG FAVORED AREAS SUCH
AS TURNAGAIN ARM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING. THESE GAP WINDS COUPLED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
AND LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM ON
FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW TONIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...COLD AIR
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE AS IT IS OVERRUN BY
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION MOSTLY TO RAIN ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING UP FROM THE AKPEN.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND AKPEN THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVES NORTHWARD. THESE AREAS WILL THEN SEE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS TRANSITORY RIDGING
MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WOULD KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 127 130 150 155 160 165 170 175 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CB NOV 12