Small Craft Advisory 800, NWS Anchorage, AK

529 
FZAK51 PAFC 081243
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090300-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES TO OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER WEATHER
FRONT MOVES TO WESTERN GULF FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ120-090300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT BECOMING E 25 KT W OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 5 FT E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 35 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-090300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-090300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-090300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND
30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 30 KT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 7 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
EXCEPT 9 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT
EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT
EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT
EXCEPT 5 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN 
ISLAND. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-090300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST WED NOV 7 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR ALL MAJOR
FEATURES. PROBLEMS BEGIN TO ARISE AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID
TERM...PRIMARILY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE EC IS FASTER AND THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE GFS AS
THE MIDDLE GROUND. ALL THREE ARE CLOSE IN INTENSITY. MEANWHILE THE
GEM IS NOT CLOSE AT ALL WITH THE LOW CENTER HUNDREDS OF MILES AWAY.
IN THE LONG TERM THE MODELS ARE DOING OK OUT EAST BUT OUT WEST THINGS
START TO FALL APART. PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF MAJOR FEATURES IS
SOMEWHAT CLOSE RUN TO RUN BUT NOT NEARLY AS CLOSE BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE STATE RIGHT NOW KEEPING WEAK FLOW OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO BUILD IN OVER THE STATE
AND WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST. OUT WEST THE MAIN LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH IMPACTING THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS ALSO BRINGING UP WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC THAT WILL PLAY A FACTOR FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE FOR AREAS
FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA VOID OF MOST CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP UNTIL THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REACH KODIAK ISLAND AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL
HAVE MADE IT TO THE KENAI PENINSULA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
THEN HAVE MADE IT THROUGH MOST AREAS AROUND THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE
WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW
OVER TO RAIN BEGINNING WITH THE AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA KEEPING PRECIP
AWAY FROM THE REGION UNTIL THE FRONT COMES INTO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. IT WILL START OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO RAIN. THE RAIN WILL THEN
LAST INTO SATURDAY UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM ITS
PLACE IN THE EASTERN BERING.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY LATE THIS MORNING. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY THURSDAY AND THAT LOW WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH INTO THE EASTERN BERING. MORE RAIN WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE AREA
AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND
START TO PUSH THIS LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST GIVING THE AREA A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING
LOWS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. NOT UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK DO
THE MODELS HINT AT A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE BERING FINALLY
SLOWING THE PATTERN DOWN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING...127 128 121 129 155 160 165 170 171 172 175
                        176 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK NOV 12