Gale Warning 748, NWS Anchorage, AK

674 
FZAK52 PAFC 090036
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES TO 120 NM NORTHWEST
OF COLD BAY AT 987 MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO 
190 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AT 994 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 998 MB
LOW MOVES TO 170 NM WEST OF ADAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-091500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT NEAR THE WESTERN
CAPES. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-091500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...11 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-091500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-091500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-091500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
415 PM AKST WED NOV 7 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON...YIELDING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
AS THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE OTHER FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...CURRENTLY ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDS NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM THE LOW AND IS
NOW LOCATED OVER THE AKPEN AND FAR WESTERN GULF ALASKA...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND AKPEN...WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT
LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A 110 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS
THE INITIAL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON
THURSDAY. THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL THEN FORM ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AKPEN...APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO
KODIAK ISLAND...WHICH WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
AS THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK ON FRIDAY AS THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES TOWARD SOUTHWEST AK AND THE NEXT FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL AK. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY
SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS AS WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES. GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY ALONG FAVORED AREAS SUCH
AS TURNAGAIN ARM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING. THESE GAP WINDS COUPLED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
AND LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM ON
FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW TONIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...COLD AIR
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE AS IT IS OVERRUN BY
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION MOSTLY TO RAIN ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING UP FROM THE AKPEN.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND AKPEN THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVES NORTHWARD. THESE AREAS WILL THEN SEE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS TRANSITORY RIDGING
MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WOULD KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 127 130 150 155 160 165 170 175 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CB NOV 12