Small Craft Advisory 753, NWS Anchorage, AK

410 
FZAK51 PAFC 211144
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220300-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN
GULF COAST THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF SUN NIGHT AND MON.

$$

PKZ120-220300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA
THIS MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-220300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
35 KT NEAR WHITTIER THIS MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-220300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT N 35 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.  SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MOST OF THE FORECAST ARE IS UNDER THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS ITS AXIS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND WESTERN ALASKA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KETCHIKAN
AND ONE NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FLANK THIS RIDGE. THE SURFACE
LOWS ARE IN BASICALLY THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH HAS ITS CENTER A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
AND ANOTHER WEAKER CENTER IN THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE.
THERE IS A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE KAMCHATKA LOW. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE BERING SEA REGION SAW AN UNSETTLED SOLUTION
WITH THE WEATHER FRONT THERE THE LAST TWO DAYS BUT THE MODELS HAVE
LOCKED IN ON THAT FEATURE AND LOOK GOOD NOW. THE NEW UNCERTAINTY IS
WITH THE LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS THE FASTEST MOVER WITH THE ECMWF BEING A BIT STRONGER AND
MUCH SLOWER...WITH THE NAM IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE SOLUTIONS. THE
ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS OPPOSED TO
THE GFS THAT BRINGS IT WELL ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE AND THE BLOCKING PATTERN
PRODUCED BY THAT RIDGE IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THE LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE CHAIN OR JUST REACH THE CHAIN NEAR KISKA BEFORE RECEDING BACK
TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE A ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED TO THE
GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL AND GULF OF ALASKA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. STRONG WINDS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN SHOULD BE AT THE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD
NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TOMORROW AS THEY WERE TODAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS THAT STILL HAVE BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SEE THOSE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AS A WEAKENING FRONT IN THE BERING
SEA MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY
NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND IT. THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A RELATIVELY STRONG WEATHER FRONT
INT HE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RAIN WITH IT TO THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WEATHER WILL PASS QUICKLY IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN BERING
SEA AS THE NEXT RIDGE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS SOON AS THE WEAKENING FRONT IN THE BERING
SEA MOVES THROUGH A STRONG RIDGE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THEN WE WILL ENTER A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN AS
THIS RIDGE DIRECTS THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA WHERE A LOW WILL MOVE IN JUST SOUTH
OF THE CHAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES
THIS LOW OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 12