Gale Warning 635, NWS Anchorage, AK

765 
FZAK62 PAFC 212254
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221500-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT WILL THEN
MOVE INLAND ON TUE. A 989 MB LOW NEAR 46N 174E WILL MOVE TO 51N 179E
MON EVENING AT 982 MB...THEN MOVE TO 49N 178W AT 982 MB TUE
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL STRENGTHEN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MON.
$$

PKZ411-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

JM

877 
FZAK62 PAFC 221055
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230300-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INLAND TUE. A 997
MB LOW NEAR 47N 174E WILL MOVE TO 51N 176E MON EVENING AT 982 MB AND
THEN MOVE TO 44N 178W AT 996 MB TUE NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA MON.

$$

PKZ411-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 30 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

189 
FZAK62 PAFC 222317
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 990 MB LOW NEAR 49N 175E WILL INTENSIFY TO 981 MB AT 51N 177E LATE
TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN TO 999 MB AS IT MOVES TO 46N 177W TUE NIGHT. 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INLAND TUE. 

$$

PKZ411-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 24 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MOST OF THE FORECAST ARE IS UNDER THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS ITS AXIS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND WESTERN ALASKA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KETCHIKAN
AND ONE NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FLANK THIS RIDGE. THE SURFACE
LOWS ARE IN BASICALLY THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH HAS ITS CENTER A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
AND ANOTHER WEAKER CENTER IN THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE.
THERE IS A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE KAMCHATKA LOW. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE BERING SEA REGION SAW AN UNSETTLED SOLUTION
WITH THE WEATHER FRONT THERE THE LAST TWO DAYS BUT THE MODELS HAVE
LOCKED IN ON THAT FEATURE AND LOOK GOOD NOW. THE NEW UNCERTAINTY IS
WITH THE LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS THE FASTEST MOVER WITH THE ECMWF BEING A BIT STRONGER AND
MUCH SLOWER...WITH THE NAM IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE SOLUTIONS. THE
ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS OPPOSED TO
THE GFS THAT BRINGS IT WELL ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE AND THE BLOCKING PATTERN
PRODUCED BY THAT RIDGE IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THE LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE CHAIN OR JUST REACH THE CHAIN NEAR KISKA BEFORE RECEDING BACK
TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE A ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED TO THE
GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL AND GULF OF ALASKA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. STRONG WINDS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN SHOULD BE AT THE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD
NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TOMORROW AS THEY WERE TODAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS THAT STILL HAVE BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SEE THOSE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AS A WEAKENING FRONT IN THE BERING
SEA MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY
NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND IT. THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A RELATIVELY STRONG WEATHER FRONT
INT HE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RAIN WITH IT TO THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WEATHER WILL PASS QUICKLY IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN BERING
SEA AS THE NEXT RIDGE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS SOON AS THE WEAKENING FRONT IN THE BERING
SEA MOVES THROUGH A STRONG RIDGE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THEN WE WILL ENTER A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN AS
THIS RIDGE DIRECTS THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA WHERE A LOW WILL MOVE IN JUST SOUTH
OF THE CHAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES
THIS LOW OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 12