Gale Warning 681, NWS Anchorage, AK

292 
FZAK52 PAFC 212254
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221500-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT WILL THEN
MOVE INLAND ON TUE. A 989 MB LOW 385 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO
NEAR AMCHITKA MON EVENING AT 982 MB...THEN MOVE TO 175 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH TUE AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT IN
THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA MON.
$$

PKZ150-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT...GUSTING TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT...GUSTING TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-221500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-221500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 
4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SE GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-221500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-221500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-221500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MOST OF THE FORECAST ARE IS UNDER THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS ITS AXIS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AND WESTERN ALASKA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KETCHIKAN
AND ONE NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FLANK THIS RIDGE. THE SURFACE
LOWS ARE IN BASICALLY THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH HAS ITS CENTER A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
AND ANOTHER WEAKER CENTER IN THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE.
THERE IS A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE KAMCHATKA LOW. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE BERING SEA REGION SAW AN UNSETTLED SOLUTION
WITH THE WEATHER FRONT THERE THE LAST TWO DAYS BUT THE MODELS HAVE
LOCKED IN ON THAT FEATURE AND LOOK GOOD NOW. THE NEW UNCERTAINTY IS
WITH THE LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS THE FASTEST MOVER WITH THE ECMWF BEING A BIT STRONGER AND
MUCH SLOWER...WITH THE NAM IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE SOLUTIONS. THE
ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS OPPOSED TO
THE GFS THAT BRINGS IT WELL ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE AND THE BLOCKING PATTERN
PRODUCED BY THAT RIDGE IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THE LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE CHAIN OR JUST REACH THE CHAIN NEAR KISKA BEFORE RECEDING BACK
TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE A ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED TO THE
GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL AND GULF OF ALASKA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. STRONG WINDS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN SHOULD BE AT THE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD
NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TOMORROW AS THEY WERE TODAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS THAT STILL HAVE BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SEE THOSE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AS A WEAKENING FRONT IN THE BERING
SEA MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY
NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND IT. THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A RELATIVELY STRONG WEATHER FRONT
INT HE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RAIN WITH IT TO THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WEATHER WILL PASS QUICKLY IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN BERING
SEA AS THE NEXT RIDGE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS SOON AS THE WEAKENING FRONT IN THE BERING
SEA MOVES THROUGH A STRONG RIDGE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THEN WE WILL ENTER A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN AS
THIS RIDGE DIRECTS THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA WHERE A LOW WILL MOVE IN JUST SOUTH
OF THE CHAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES
THIS LOW OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 12