Small Craft Advisory 660, NWS Anchorage, AK

740 
FZAK51 PAFC 172317
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATES ALONG THE GULF COAST TUE. A SECOND FRONT WILL APPROACH 
THE GULF COAST TUE NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WED. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
200 NM SE OF SAND POINT AT 988 MB TUE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONSHORE
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND EARLY WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF 
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

481 
FZAK51 PAFC 181153
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET... A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A 988 MB LOW NEAR 52N 159W
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR CASTLE CAPE EARLY WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. WINDS BECOMING
SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE RIDGE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND EASTERN
PACIFIC. AN INTENSE 160 KT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT RESIDES ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THESE FEATURES IS PUMPING A STEADY SUPPLY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. DUE TO THE SLOW
WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SEVERAL AREA RIVERS HAVE APPROACHED MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE SHORT TERM...MODELS
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM MODEL WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...STEADY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION LATE INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SWELL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN REGIONS MAINLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS COOK INLET THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED MONDAY...BEFORE A
FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR BETHEL IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM
DELTA REGIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY DRY OUT ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE SHORT TERM AS SYSTEMS PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS SUPPORTING RATHER QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING THIS EVENING...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF
SHEMYA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS TOWARDS THE ALASKA MAINLAND. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LOCAL GAPS AND LOCAL FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING...131 135 145
MARINE...STORM...160
         GALE...120 121 128 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 165 176 180
                185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN SEP 12