High Wind Watch 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

702 
WWAK71 PAFC 180018
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
418 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012


AKZ125-181800-
/X.EXA.PAFC.HW.A.0011.120919T1000Z-120919T2200Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
418 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATION...PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM. 

* WIND...35 TO 55 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 85 MPH. 

* TIMING...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
  NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.
  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

AKZ101-181800-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0011.120919T1000Z-120919T2200Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
418 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...EAST ANCHORAGE...HILLSIDE...AND EAGLE RIVER AS WELL
  AS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WIND...EAST ANCHORAGE...LOWER HILLSIDE...AND EAGLE RIVER...
  SOUTHEAST WIND 30 TO 45 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 65 MPH. ALONG
  TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST WIND 45 TO 65
  MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 100 MPH.

* TIMING...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
  TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
  WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. STRONG WINDS
  CAN PRODUCE WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES AND MAY DAMAGE PROPERTY.
  TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

316 
WWAK71 PAFC 181300
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AKZ101-190400-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0011.120919T1000Z-120919T2200Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0016.120919T0900Z-120920T0000Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
500 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...EAST ANCHORAGE...HILLSIDE...AND EAGLE RIVER AS WELL 
  AS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 

* WIND...ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST WINDS
  35 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH INCREASING TO 85 TO 110 MPH
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LOWER HILLSIDE...EAST ANCHORAGE...AND EAGLE
  RIVER...SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH AFTER
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
  POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
  SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
  HOURS.

* IMPACTS...TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. STRONG 
  WINDS CAN PRODUCE WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ125-190400-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0011.120919T1000Z-120919T2200Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0016.120919T0900Z-120920T0000Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
500 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

* WIND...EAST WINDS 40 TO 60 MPH INCREASING TO 70 TO 85 MPH AFTER
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PEAK WEDNESDAY
  MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE OF THE PAST TWO DAYS IS QUICKLY FILLING AND
RACING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE BETTER PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS WELL AS LINGERING SHOWERS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STACKED SYSTEM THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS
FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE TIME BEING WITH A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
BERING SEA. THREE UPPER LOW CENTERS FORM SAID TROUGH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE IS STILL HOLDING STRONG FORMING SOMEWHAT OF A BLOCKING
PATTERN. AS LONG AS THOSE TWO PROMINENT LONGWAVE FEATURES STAY IN
PLACE MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE STRUGGLING RIGHT OFF THE BAT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES HAVE LITTLE CONSENSUS THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP
SOME LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED AND STRENGTH. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH
COMBO BEHIND THE ORIGINAL TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A LEFT OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE LAST SYSTEM. MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS FEATURE IS ALSO PRETTY LARGE
BUT AGAIN THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT SOME SORT OF FRONTAL WAVE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AKPEN ON EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE ONE FEATURE THE MODELS DO HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS
FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST...A STRONGER UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE RELATIVELY DATA RICH SIBERIA INTO THE BERING SEA/NORTH PACIFIC
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER THROUGH THE MORNING TODAY...STAYING MORE PERSISTENT
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. NO REST FOR THE WEARY THOUGH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM OVER BRISTOL BAY SENDS YET ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
WESTERN GULF COAST. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS MORE STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. YET
ANOTHER FRONT/UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE SOUTH CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A VERY GUSTY SHOWERY REGIME LEFT IN PLACE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...THE NEXT
FRONT WILL ROTATE ONTO THROUGH THE MAINLAND TODAY AS A TRIPLE POINT
LOW DEVELOPS IN BRISTOL BAY. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...BUT STILL FAIRLY GUSTY. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE BRISTOL BAY/KUSKOKWIM VALLEY REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK QUIETER CONDITIONS LOOK TO SETTLE IN AS A
STRONG SYSTEM BREWS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A VERY ELONGATED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES
OVERTOP OF THE CHAIN THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS...NORTHERLY FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CHAIN...SOUTHERLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CHAIN WILL HANG AROUND TODAY. STEADIER RAIN FROM COLD BAY EAST
THROUGH THE AKPEN...AS WELL AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...MORE SHOWERS
FOR DUTCH HARBOR AND WESTWARD. RELATIVELY QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE
TILL A STRONGER SYSTEM DROPS FROM SIBERIA LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE FIREHOSE CONTINUES...THE EXCEPTION BEING A STRONG SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BRIEFLY GIVE RESPITE TO THE WET
PATTERN BEFORE IT MARCHES NORTHWARD RETURNING THE ANOMALOUS WETNESS.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE NEXT WEEKEND BLOCKING LOOKS TO BREAK
DOWN SOMEWHAT AND DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN A BIT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101
         FLOOD WARNING 125 131 135 145
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 140 150 155 160 170 175 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL SEP 12