Small Craft Advisory 613, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jul 31, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Aug 1, 2012, 7:00 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312350
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 988 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF ST PAUL WEAKENS TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEDNESDAY EVENING. A 1010 MB LOW
MOVES TO 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. E 
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING...BECOMING SW 30
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

JM

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jul 31, 5:00 AM AKDT, 11 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL PLANETARY TROUGH EXTENDS FROM KAMCHATKA TO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
A WEAKER EMBEDDED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK. RIDGING ALOFT
IS OVER THE AK PEN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE OVER
THE WESTERN BERING AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF AK. AN OCCLUDED WEATHER
FRONT FROM THE BERING LOW IS MOVING INTO WESTERN AK. THE FRONT IS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND BRINGING SHOWERS AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. IN THE GULF...SHOWERS MOVING AROUND THE LOW
ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OCCLUDED
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW WILL MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL TODAY
OVER SOUTHWEST AK...BUT THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT IS WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND WITH LESS INTENSITY...THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWEST AK WED INTO THU WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND
DISSIPATES. IN THE EAST...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST AK TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. REMNANTS
OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BERING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA
AND ALEUTIAN RANGES TUE AND WED...AND THEN THE DECAYING BERING LOW
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FORECAST UTILIZES SOME GFS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...AND
THEN THE EC WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MID AND LONG
RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...GALES AND THEN SMALL CRAFT WIND ALONG WITH RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH WED. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE ALEUTIANS BEGINNING THU AND PERSISTING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY AND SPREAD TO
THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN
REMNANTS OF THE BERING LOW FINALLY DISSIPATE.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST AS THE GULF LOW DEPARTS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL THEN ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BERING LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.
RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE BERING
LOW DISSIPATES OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...AND
GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS JUL 12

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.