Gale Warning 473, NWS Anchorage, AK

629 
FZAK62 PAFC 012349
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021500-
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR 60N 166W WILL MOVE INLAND WED EVENING NEAR 60N 164W
AT 997 MB. A 997 MB LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO 60N 177E AT
1004 MB THU EVENING THEN DISSIPATE LATE THU NIGHT. A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
48N 168E WILL MOVE TO 50N 179E WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FRI.
$$

PKZ411-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
419 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA HAS LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER
LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. OUT
WEST...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BRINGING THE
BERING LOW ASHORE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW IS PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE WESTERN BERING FROM RUSSIA
ON THURSDAY. WENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BERING
SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY IN FAVORED
AREAS SUCH AS THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND KNIK RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE BERING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE PRIBILOFS AND ALONG THE
AKPEN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES AND
PATCHY FOG WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE BERING LATER IN THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE DECAYING LOW MOVES THROUGH.
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL NOT BE LIMITED TO THE MAINLAND...AS THE
ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING
INTO THE BERING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB JUL 12