Small Craft Advisory 612, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jul 31, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Aug 1, 2012, 7:00 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 312318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1007 MB LOW 210 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL DRIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING AND
REACH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALONG
THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT
BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 20 KT. SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 20 KT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jul 31, 5:00 AM AKDT, 11 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL PLANETARY TROUGH EXTENDS FROM KAMCHATKA TO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
A WEAKER EMBEDDED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK. RIDGING ALOFT
IS OVER THE AK PEN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE OVER
THE WESTERN BERING AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF AK. AN OCCLUDED WEATHER
FRONT FROM THE BERING LOW IS MOVING INTO WESTERN AK. THE FRONT IS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND BRINGING SHOWERS AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. IN THE GULF...SHOWERS MOVING AROUND THE LOW
ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OCCLUDED
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW WILL MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL TODAY
OVER SOUTHWEST AK...BUT THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT IS WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND WITH LESS INTENSITY...THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWEST AK WED INTO THU WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND
DISSIPATES. IN THE EAST...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST AK TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. REMNANTS
OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BERING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA
AND ALEUTIAN RANGES TUE AND WED...AND THEN THE DECAYING BERING LOW
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FORECAST UTILIZES SOME GFS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...AND
THEN THE EC WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MID AND LONG
RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...GALES AND THEN SMALL CRAFT WIND ALONG WITH RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH WED. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE ALEUTIANS BEGINNING THU AND PERSISTING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY AND SPREAD TO
THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN
REMNANTS OF THE BERING LOW FINALLY DISSIPATE.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST AS THE GULF LOW DEPARTS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL THEN ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BERING LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.
RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE BERING
LOW DISSIPATES OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...AND
GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS JUL 12

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.