Small Craft Advisory 599, NWS Anchorage, AK

859 
FZAK52 PAFC 272341
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281500-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING TUE MORNING. A 1005 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR SAINT PAUL
ISLAND TUE NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO 999 MB NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WED
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-281500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-281500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-281500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS
OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-281500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT AFTER. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-281500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-281500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
705 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WE ARE STILL LOCKED INTO A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A UPPER LOW
OVER CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEA AND A LARGE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC. A SERIES RIDGES AND TROUGHS CAUGHT WITHIN THIS FLOW CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA. THE RIDGE THAT
BROUGHT NICE WEATHER INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY HAS MOVED OFF
INTO WESTERN CANADA. A TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY HAS
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A NEW RIDGE HAD JUST MOVED INTO THE BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY BUT ARE HAVING PROBLEM WITH A NEW WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ENTERING THE BERING SEA FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTH CENTRAL...THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN CANADA BY
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY
WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS AS THE WEATHER FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY REDEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA
HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND WIND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THESE
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGER WINDS AND RAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE WESTERN BERING WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE BERING BY MONDAY
MORNING THOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD MORE
RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND AND BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGES AND TROUGHS.
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE IN CANADA
THURSDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
EAST SPREADING RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 138 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM AUG 12