Gale Warning 483, NWS Anchorage, AK

208 
FZAK61 PAFC 262330 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-271500-
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND SUN NIGHT AND WILL
MOVE TO 59N 141W AT 1004 MB MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

149 
FZAK61 PAFC 271159
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-280300-
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND MON MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO 58N 138W AT 1004 MB
TUE MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE INLAND.

$$

PKZ351-280300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-280300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

174 
FZAK61 PAFC 272300
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-281500-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 60N 146W WILL MOVE TO 58N 138W AT 1007 MB TUE
AFTERNOON THEN WILL MOVE INLAND TUE NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-281500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-281500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

070 
FZAK61 PAFC 281159
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-290300-
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 59N
139W WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE GULF WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ351-290300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-290300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THEN START TO DRIFT
APART IN THE MID TERM. THEY ARE ALL STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERING. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
COMING SYSTEM IS LOW. IN THE EXTENDED THINGS GET WORSE WITH THE EC
MOVING THE MAIN FEATURES MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE GFS OR HPC. THE EC
ALSO HAS THE MAIN LOW MUCH DEEPER THAN THE OTHERS. THINGS ARE
SLIGHTLY BETTER AS WE MOVE EAST BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THE LONG RANGE MODEL FORECASTS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE IS A LOW THAT IS MOVING ON SHORE NEAR HOOPER BAY AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE BERING AND OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A 115KT JET THAT IS
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO OVER THE INTERIOR PART OF THE
STATE. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND UP THROUGH THE
GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ALREADY MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL. BY LATE THIS MORNING IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FROM THE MATANUSKA VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL HAVE SPREAD TO AREAS ALL
ALONG THE GULF COAST. EARLY ON MONDAY THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
WITH RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN MOST
AREAS. BY TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE LEAVING NICE
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LOW THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY INLAND NEAR HOOPER
BAY HAS BROUGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR TO THE AREA WHICH
IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR OUT THE SKIES BUT WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT AREAS OF FOG.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...THE FRONT RESIDING OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS IS BRINGING RAIN AND WIND FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGER WINDS
AND RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT BY TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE ITS WAY PAST THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THE HIGH WILL HAVE MADE IT TO THE CENTRAL BERING BUT ANOTHER LOW WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER BLAST OF WARM AIR.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE ACTIVE PATTERN THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK BRINGING SHORT LIVED AREAS
OF CLEARING IN BETWEEN THE TRAIN OF LOWS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 138 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK AUG 12