Small Craft Advisory 387, NWS Anchorage, AK

316 
FZAK52 PAFC 281155
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290300-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF KISKA WILL DISSIPATE 90 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK THIS AFTERNOON. A 981 MB LOW ALONG A WEATHER FRONT 150
NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE NEAR NIKOLSKI AT 977 MB
THIS EVENING...THEN TRACK TO 260 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT AT
985 MB TUE EVENING. A LOW OVER SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 430 NM NORTH OF
ATTU AT 1002 MB WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-290300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-290300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-290300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. BERING SIDE...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-290300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-290300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-290300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONE IN THE GULF
AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A RIDGE IN BETWEEN.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLOWLY EDGING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
THE STOPPERS ARE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE GULF LOW. A
CONVERGENCE AREA HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY INTO WESTERN KENAI.
THE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GULF LOW IS PRODUCING RAIN OVER
THE SOUND AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. OUT WEST...THERE IS A SURFACE LOW
NEAR ADAK WITH MODERATE PRECIP AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING. THE LOW NEAR ADAK IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET CORE WHICH WILL OUTRUN THE LOW ITSELF
WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING NEAR DUTCH TONIGHT THEN A THIRD
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE GULF TOMORROW NIGHT. IN BETWEEN...HIGH
PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE EASTERN BERING AND WEST COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TOMORROW. THE LOW IN THE GULF
DISSIPATES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST. THIS HAPPENS AS THE LOW NEAR ADAK
DEVELOPS A TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR DUTCH TONIGHT AND BECOMES THE
DOMINANT LOW BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD BY THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER
LOW STACKED OVERHEAD...ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE
GULF TUESDAY. THIS IS THE AREA OF SLIGHT DISCREPANCY. THE 00Z MODELS
WERE MORE DIVERSE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE 12Z MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH EACH OTHER BUT DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEW TRIPLE POINT LOWS
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GULF. THE EC IS MUCH QUICKER PUSHING IT NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING AND NEAR KODIAK BY 12Z WED.
AFTER THIS TIME FRAME...THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW BECOME QUITE BROAD
ENCOMPASSING WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE GULF LOW FROM THE BERING THURSDAY. THE
SHORT WAVE HELPS SWING THE GULF LOW TOWARD THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...DISTURBANCES FILL INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING FROM THE ARCTIC.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
STACKED LOW IN THE GULF TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY SOUTH TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WRAPPING AROUND THE GULF LOW BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUND. THESE
FEATURES TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW IN THE GULF WEAKENS AND THE
UPPER LOW IN THE CHUKCHI MOVES TO EASTERN RUSSIA ESTABLISHING MORE OF
AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LESS
ORGANIZED PRECIP ACTIVITY. THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WILL BRING GAP FLOW INTO EAST-WEST ORIENTED AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEEP LOW WITH JET SUPPORT OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO
SWING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GULF STARTING MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL REACH KODIAK AND
THE NORTHERN COAST EARLY TUESDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING TO KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF TO GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PARENT LOW ROLLS INTO THE GULF
WEDNESDAY AND THE TWO LOW CONSOLIDATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY INLAND.

SOUTHWEST...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG
STILL EXPECTED IN THE KUSKO DELTA AND VALLEY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SO FOG
WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN
THE AKPEN. THERMAL TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES TOMORROW INLAND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALONG THE AKPEN. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERMAL TROUGH MOVES NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TRACKS TOWARD THE GULF. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PASS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY FROM THE EAST
WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF. RAIN WILL BE
SCATTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW CONSOLIDATES IN THE GULF.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LOW NEAR ADAK PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
BACK INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. A
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR DUTCH TONIGHT. THIS BECOMES THE
PARENT LOW AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL SURROUND THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND BRING MODERATE
PRECIP AS WELL. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED NORTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE BERING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS
EVERYWHERE. THE LOW CONTINUES TO SWING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH RAIN AND WINDS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. DISTURBANCES OUT
OF THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE INSTABILITY OVER THE BERING FOR SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GULF WITH DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE LOW. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE GULF
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD BUT SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE
EASTERN GULF. OVER THE BERING SEA...THE LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI
CURRENTLY WILL DROP INTO THE BERING BY WEDNESDAY. A BLOCKING RIDGE
OVER EASTERN ASIA WILL KEEP A MERIDIONAL PUSH DOWN THE BERING WITH
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. WHAT IT MEANS AT THE SURFACE IN THE BERING IS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN BERING AND WEST COAST WITH A COMPLEX
LOW STRUCTURE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING. EXACT DETAILS OF
THIS SETUP IN THE BERING AND GULF ARE UNCERTAIN AND FORECAST IS MORE
BROAD TO REFLECT LOWER CONFIDENCE OF DETAILS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...155 165 170 171 172 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN