Freezing Rain Advisory 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

798 
WWAK42 PAFC 281857
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1057 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

AKZ195-282000-
/X.CAN.PAFC.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120528T1900Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
1057 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. 

THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DISSIPATED
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.



$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
530 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER-LOW IN THE GULF OF AK IS FILLING THIS MORNING. YESTERDAY'S
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE MAT-SU VALLEY AND UPPER COOK INLET
REGIONS HAS SHEARED OUT AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS...WITH SOME SUNNY
BREAKS MATERIALIZING OVER SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK THIS
MORNING. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IS STILL USHERING IN CLOUDS THAT ARE
MOVING UP FROM THE AK PANHANDLE...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
SQUEEZING OUT SOME PASSING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS THEY PROGRESS
WEST. FURTHER WEST...TRANSITORY RIDGING IS BREAKING DOWN AS THE
UPPER-LOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN MOVES EAST. THERE IS SOME MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND COASTAL AREA OF THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA...THOUGH THE FLOW IS BECOMING MORE OFF-SHORE WITH
TIME...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW NEAR KISKA
IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND FILLING. A FRONT WITH GALES AND RAIN
EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CHAIN. A
TRIPLE POINT LOW HAS DEVELOPED 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR
AND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE A REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MAIN FEATURES. IN THE
WEST...MODELS AGREE THAT THE TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY THIS EVENING NEAR NIKOLSKI...BEFORE
TRACKING TO AROUND 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT TUE EVENING. IN
IT'S WAKE AN UPPER-LOW IS DEPICTED DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE CHUKCHI
SEA TO THE WEST CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON WED...WITH THE ECMWF A HAIR
STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IN THE EAST...THE ALEUTIAN/PACIFIC
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES TO
THE NORTHERN TO WESTERN GULF EARLY WED MORNING. THE KEY DIFFERENCE IS
THAT THE ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPING A
TRIPLE POINT ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ROTATING IT TO NEAR
SITKINAK WED MORNING. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE TRENDING A BIT IN
THIS DIRECTION...ALBEIT WEAKER AND SLOWER. KEEPING WITH CONTINUITY
AND DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE MORNING FORECAST GENERALLY
TRENDS TO THE ECMWF. MODELS COME BACK INTO LINE LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE RESIDUAL LOW DRIFTING EAST ALONG SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE GULF OF AK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
PERIODIC WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSHING NORTH TO NORTHWEST OUT OF
SOUTHEAST AK WILL TEMPER SUNSHINE A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
PASSING SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER COASTAL REGIONS OR THE MOUNTAINS. THE
GULF UPPER LOW OPENS TO A TROUGH TONIGHT...GETS CAUGHT IN THE UPPER
FLOW AND PUSHES NORTH INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ON TUE WITH SOME
ENHANCED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM AND TRIPLE POINT MOVE
UP TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND TUE INTO WED. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
STEADY RAIN AND GALES FOR THE GULF AND COASTAL AREAS. A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL RIDGE/PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND SUSTAINS ITSELF INTO
MID-WEEK SO LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE
VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST...
INCREASING OFF-SHORE FLOW WILL COME WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN OF BRISTOL BAY. INLAND...WEAK RIDGING GIVES WAY TO CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN TO A DIURNAL SHOWER PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
PER INCREASED CAPE VALUES BY TUE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
GALES AND RAIN TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
PUSHES AWAY INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS DOWN ON
WED...AND MAY BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF GALES TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN CHAIN...THOUGH AT THIS JUNCTURE HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS MID
WEEK AT 30 KT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GULF WITH DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE LOW. A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER EASTERN ASIA WILL KEEP A
MERIDIONAL PUSH DOWN THE BERING WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. LOOK FOR
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN AK COAST WITH A
COMPLEX LOW STRUCTURE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING. EXACT
DETAILS OF THIS SETUP IN THE BERING AND GULF ARE UNCERTAIN AND
FORECAST IS MORE BROAD TO REFLECT LOWER CONFIDENCE OF DETAILS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 155 165 170 171 176 351 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY