Gale Warning 373, NWS Anchorage, AK

248 
FZAK62 PAFC 281155
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-290300-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR 52N 177E WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 51N 176W THIS
AFTERNOON. A 981 MB LOW ALONG A WEATHER FRONT NEAR 52N 168W WILL
MOVE TO 54N 169W AT 977 MB THIS EVENING...THEN TRACK TO 52N 156W AT
985 MB TUE EVENING. A LOW OVER SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 59N 173E AT 1002
MB WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

165 
FZAK62 PAFC 282302
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-291500-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 MB LOW NEAR 53N 170W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO 51N 158W TUE
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TO 990 MB NEAR 55N 150W WED
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

315 
FZAK62 PAFC 291136
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300300-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 MB LOW NEAR 50N 165W WILL MOVE TO 51N 154W THIS EVENING AND
WEAKEN. A LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 59N 173E AT 1004 MB
WED MORNING THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH THROUGH THU.

$$

PKZ411-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONE IN THE GULF
AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A RIDGE IN BETWEEN.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLOWLY EDGING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
THE STOPPERS ARE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE GULF LOW. A
CONVERGENCE AREA HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY INTO WESTERN KENAI.
THE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GULF LOW IS PRODUCING RAIN OVER
THE SOUND AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. OUT WEST...THERE IS A SURFACE LOW
NEAR ADAK WITH MODERATE PRECIP AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING. THE LOW NEAR ADAK IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET CORE WHICH WILL OUTRUN THE LOW ITSELF
WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING NEAR DUTCH TONIGHT THEN A THIRD
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE GULF TOMORROW NIGHT. IN BETWEEN...HIGH
PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE EASTERN BERING AND WEST COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TOMORROW. THE LOW IN THE GULF
DISSIPATES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST. THIS HAPPENS AS THE LOW NEAR ADAK
DEVELOPS A TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR DUTCH TONIGHT AND BECOMES THE
DOMINANT LOW BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD BY THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER
LOW STACKED OVERHEAD...ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE
GULF TUESDAY. THIS IS THE AREA OF SLIGHT DISCREPANCY. THE 00Z MODELS
WERE MORE DIVERSE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE 12Z MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH EACH OTHER BUT DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEW TRIPLE POINT LOWS
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GULF. THE EC IS MUCH QUICKER PUSHING IT NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING AND NEAR KODIAK BY 12Z WED.
AFTER THIS TIME FRAME...THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW BECOME QUITE BROAD
ENCOMPASSING WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE GULF LOW FROM THE BERING THURSDAY. THE
SHORT WAVE HELPS SWING THE GULF LOW TOWARD THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...DISTURBANCES FILL INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING FROM THE ARCTIC.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
STACKED LOW IN THE GULF TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY SOUTH TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WRAPPING AROUND THE GULF LOW BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUND. THESE
FEATURES TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW IN THE GULF WEAKENS AND THE
UPPER LOW IN THE CHUKCHI MOVES TO EASTERN RUSSIA ESTABLISHING MORE OF
AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LESS
ORGANIZED PRECIP ACTIVITY. THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WILL BRING GAP FLOW INTO EAST-WEST ORIENTED AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEEP LOW WITH JET SUPPORT OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO
SWING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GULF STARTING MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL REACH KODIAK AND
THE NORTHERN COAST EARLY TUESDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING TO KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF TO GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PARENT LOW ROLLS INTO THE GULF
WEDNESDAY AND THE TWO LOW CONSOLIDATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY INLAND.

SOUTHWEST...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG
STILL EXPECTED IN THE KUSKO DELTA AND VALLEY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SO FOG
WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN
THE AKPEN. THERMAL TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES TOMORROW INLAND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALONG THE AKPEN. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERMAL TROUGH MOVES NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TRACKS TOWARD THE GULF. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PASS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY FROM THE EAST
WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF. RAIN WILL BE
SCATTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW CONSOLIDATES IN THE GULF.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LOW NEAR ADAK PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
BACK INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. A
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR DUTCH TONIGHT. THIS BECOMES THE
PARENT LOW AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL SURROUND THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND BRING MODERATE
PRECIP AS WELL. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED NORTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE BERING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS
EVERYWHERE. THE LOW CONTINUES TO SWING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH RAIN AND WINDS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. DISTURBANCES OUT
OF THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE INSTABILITY OVER THE BERING FOR SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GULF WITH DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE LOW. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE GULF
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD BUT SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE
EASTERN GULF. OVER THE BERING SEA...THE LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI
CURRENTLY WILL DROP INTO THE BERING BY WEDNESDAY. A BLOCKING RIDGE
OVER EASTERN ASIA WILL KEEP A MERIDIONAL PUSH DOWN THE BERING WITH
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. WHAT IT MEANS AT THE SURFACE IN THE BERING IS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN BERING AND WEST COAST WITH A COMPLEX
LOW STRUCTURE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING. EXACT DETAILS OF
THIS SETUP IN THE BERING AND GULF ARE UNCERTAIN AND FORECAST IS MORE
BROAD TO REFLECT LOWER CONFIDENCE OF DETAILS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...155 165 170 171 172 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN