Small Craft Advisory 382, NWS Anchorage, AK

595 
FZAK52 PAFC 261154
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270300-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 240 NM SOUTH OF ATTU AT 994 MB THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE TO NEAR KISKA AT 982 MB MON MORNING. AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUN EVENING AND TRACK TO AROUND 190 NM
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 983 MB MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-270300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-270300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-270300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-270300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 3 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON W OF
SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SW WIND
15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
SHEMYA W...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-270300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-270300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

368 
FZAK52 PAFC 262233
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-271500-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 996 MB LOW 350NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL DEEPEN TO 982 MB 150 
NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO 100 NM WEST OF UNALASKA MON AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE EAST SUN AND BE
PUSHED NORTH MON. 

$$

PKZ150-271500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-271500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-271500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-271500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-271500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-271500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
UNALASKA E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-271500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-271500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING. E 
OF SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-271500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-271500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-271500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-271500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1215 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...PRIMARY FEATURE NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS A LARGE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
WESTERN GULF. AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS EXTENDS
FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOW LATER TODAY
THANKS TO A TROUGH DROPPING FROM THE ARCTIC INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA
PROVIDING OPPOSING FLOW. AT THE SURFACE IS A COMPLEX ELONGATED LOW
WITH OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING INTO THE GULF. THE BULK OF RAIN IS
HANGING UP ALONG KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SURFACE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO SOUTHCENTRAL HAS WEAKENED A BIT THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT TO TIGHTEN UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT
MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
KICK BACK UP THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM/ANCHORAGE/MAT VALLEY/ALONG THE
COPPER RIVER. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS IS ALSO PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS/SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA AREAS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
ITS FASTER MOVEMENT OF UPPER CENTER OUT OF THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE KEY TO MOVEMENT OF EASTERLY
WAVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A QUICKER
EXIT OF THE LOW WHICH MEANS EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO THE COPPER
BASIN SUNDAY WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESSION AS
YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS INDICATED.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FORMATION OF TRIPLE POINT LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WEAKENING OF
ORIGINAL LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. SINCE CURRENT FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF POSITION WILL STICK WITH THAT FOR NOW...
BUT TREND TOWARD A STRONGER LOW AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS PACIFIC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESS
INTO GULF TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL HELP ERODE THE COASTAL RIDGE AND BRING AN END TO GUSTY
WINDS. 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOWS AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAT WON'T
CHANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT
JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. LOW LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
EVEN MORE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ON SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY
FLOW SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SUNSHINE.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS. RAIN WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INTO
THE COPPER BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING SOME STEADY
RAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE A FASTER
EXIT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THESE WAVES WILL STALL OVER THE
COPPER BASIN. INSTEAD OF EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL NOW LIKELY SEE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAK
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. DON'T EXPECT MORE THAN SOME
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THIS..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE. THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH SOUTHCENTRAL IN
THE COL AREA BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STALL OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. AS
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FLOW WILL
SHIFT AROUND AND PUSH EVERYTHING SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THIS WILL
CONFINE SHOWERS TO ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD AND PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN A BIT BY MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWERS. AS IS TYPICAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CAN ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO FORM THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE GULF. A STRONG UPPER JET
AND SHORT-WAVE EXITING ASIA WILL THEN INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING
A GALE FORCE LOW TO THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING THIS WEEKEND.
AS JET MOVES ON BY THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSFER MOST OF THE ENERGY DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC AS WE
HEAD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS WITH THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE CURVE NORTHWARD
AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF LONG-WAVE TROUGH CAUSING IT
TO AMPLIFY. THIS WILL BRING MORE WET CONDITIONS TO THE GULF COAST
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
THE BERING SEA WILL BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH JUST SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 12