Small Craft Advisory 381, NWS Anchorage, AK

742 
FZAK51 PAFC 261151
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270300-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A COMPLEX 998 MB LOW 160 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO AROUND
270 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1002 MB SUN MORNING...THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION MON
MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-270300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-270300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-270300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-270300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1215 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...PRIMARY FEATURE NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS A LARGE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
WESTERN GULF. AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS EXTENDS
FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOW LATER TODAY
THANKS TO A TROUGH DROPPING FROM THE ARCTIC INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA
PROVIDING OPPOSING FLOW. AT THE SURFACE IS A COMPLEX ELONGATED LOW
WITH OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING INTO THE GULF. THE BULK OF RAIN IS
HANGING UP ALONG KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SURFACE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO SOUTHCENTRAL HAS WEAKENED A BIT THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT TO TIGHTEN UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT
MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
KICK BACK UP THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM/ANCHORAGE/MAT VALLEY/ALONG THE
COPPER RIVER. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS IS ALSO PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS/SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA AREAS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
ITS FASTER MOVEMENT OF UPPER CENTER OUT OF THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE KEY TO MOVEMENT OF EASTERLY
WAVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A QUICKER
EXIT OF THE LOW WHICH MEANS EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO THE COPPER
BASIN SUNDAY WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESSION AS
YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS INDICATED.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FORMATION OF TRIPLE POINT LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WEAKENING OF
ORIGINAL LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. SINCE CURRENT FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF POSITION WILL STICK WITH THAT FOR NOW...
BUT TREND TOWARD A STRONGER LOW AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS PACIFIC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESS
INTO GULF TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL HELP ERODE THE COASTAL RIDGE AND BRING AN END TO GUSTY
WINDS. 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOWS AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAT WON'T
CHANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT
JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. LOW LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
EVEN MORE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ON SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY
FLOW SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SUNSHINE.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS. RAIN WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INTO
THE COPPER BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING SOME STEADY
RAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE A FASTER
EXIT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THESE WAVES WILL STALL OVER THE
COPPER BASIN. INSTEAD OF EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL NOW LIKELY SEE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAK
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. DON'T EXPECT MORE THAN SOME
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THIS..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE. THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH SOUTHCENTRAL IN
THE COL AREA BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STALL OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. AS
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FLOW WILL
SHIFT AROUND AND PUSH EVERYTHING SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THIS WILL
CONFINE SHOWERS TO ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD AND PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN A BIT BY MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWERS. AS IS TYPICAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CAN ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO FORM THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE GULF. A STRONG UPPER JET
AND SHORT-WAVE EXITING ASIA WILL THEN INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING
A GALE FORCE LOW TO THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING THIS WEEKEND.
AS JET MOVES ON BY THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSFER MOST OF THE ENERGY DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC AS WE
HEAD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS WITH THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE CURVE NORTHWARD
AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF LONG-WAVE TROUGH CAUSING IT
TO AMPLIFY. THIS WILL BRING MORE WET CONDITIONS TO THE GULF COAST
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
THE BERING SEA WILL BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH JUST SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 12