Gale Warning 371, NWS Anchorage, AK

460 
FZAK62 PAFC 261639 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
840 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

UPDATED ZONES 411 412 413

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270300-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 50N 173E AT 994 MB THIS EVENING... 
THEN MOVE TO NEAR 52N 178E AT 982 MB MON MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON TO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SUN EVENING AND TRACK TO NEAR 51N 165W AT 983 MB MON
MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
840 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
840 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 9
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
840 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT BY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

208 
FZAK62 PAFC 262233
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271500-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 996 MB LOW NEAR 48N 170E WILL DEEPEN TO 982 MB NEAR 51N 176E SUN
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO 53N 
169W MON AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL
MOVE EAST SUN AND BE PUSHED NORTH MON. 

$$

PKZ411-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

897 
FZAK62 PAFC 271147
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280300-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR 52N 176E WILL MOVE TO 51N 176W AT 985 MB MON
AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE MON EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
ON MON AND WEAKEN. A 988 MB LOW WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR 50N
170W THIS EVENING...TRACK TO 53N 167W AT 978 MB MON AFTERNOON...THEN
DRIFT TO 51N 162W AT 984 MB TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

774 
FZAK62 PAFC 272245
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281500-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR 52N 177E WILL MOVE TO 52N 180 MON MORNING AND
DISSIPATE BY MON AFTERNOON. A 976 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A 
WEATHER FRONT MON AFTERNOON NEAR 53N 169W AND WEAKEN TO 983 MB NEAR
50N 160W TUE AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

248 
FZAK62 PAFC 281155
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-290300-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR 52N 177E WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 51N 176W THIS
AFTERNOON. A 981 MB LOW ALONG A WEATHER FRONT NEAR 52N 168W WILL
MOVE TO 54N 169W AT 977 MB THIS EVENING...THEN TRACK TO 52N 156W AT
985 MB TUE EVENING. A LOW OVER SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 59N 173E AT 1002
MB WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1215 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...PRIMARY FEATURE NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS A LARGE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
WESTERN GULF. AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS EXTENDS
FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOW LATER TODAY
THANKS TO A TROUGH DROPPING FROM THE ARCTIC INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA
PROVIDING OPPOSING FLOW. AT THE SURFACE IS A COMPLEX ELONGATED LOW
WITH OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING INTO THE GULF. THE BULK OF RAIN IS
HANGING UP ALONG KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SURFACE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO SOUTHCENTRAL HAS WEAKENED A BIT THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT TO TIGHTEN UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT
MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
KICK BACK UP THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM/ANCHORAGE/MAT VALLEY/ALONG THE
COPPER RIVER. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS IS ALSO PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS/SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA AREAS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
ITS FASTER MOVEMENT OF UPPER CENTER OUT OF THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE KEY TO MOVEMENT OF EASTERLY
WAVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A QUICKER
EXIT OF THE LOW WHICH MEANS EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO THE COPPER
BASIN SUNDAY WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESSION AS
YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS INDICATED.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FORMATION OF TRIPLE POINT LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WEAKENING OF
ORIGINAL LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. SINCE CURRENT FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF POSITION WILL STICK WITH THAT FOR NOW...
BUT TREND TOWARD A STRONGER LOW AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS PACIFIC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESS
INTO GULF TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL HELP ERODE THE COASTAL RIDGE AND BRING AN END TO GUSTY
WINDS. 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOWS AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAT WON'T
CHANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT
JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. LOW LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
EVEN MORE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ON SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY
FLOW SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SUNSHINE.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS. RAIN WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INTO
THE COPPER BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING SOME STEADY
RAIN. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE A FASTER
EXIT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THESE WAVES WILL STALL OVER THE
COPPER BASIN. INSTEAD OF EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL NOW LIKELY SEE WESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAK
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. DON'T EXPECT MORE THAN SOME
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THIS..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE. THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH SOUTHCENTRAL IN
THE COL AREA BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STALL OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. AS
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FLOW WILL
SHIFT AROUND AND PUSH EVERYTHING SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THIS WILL
CONFINE SHOWERS TO ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD AND PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN A BIT BY MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWERS. AS IS TYPICAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CAN ALSO
EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO FORM THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE GULF. A STRONG UPPER JET
AND SHORT-WAVE EXITING ASIA WILL THEN INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING
A GALE FORCE LOW TO THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING THIS WEEKEND.
AS JET MOVES ON BY THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSFER MOST OF THE ENERGY DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC AS WE
HEAD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS WITH THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE CURVE NORTHWARD
AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF LONG-WAVE TROUGH CAUSING IT
TO AMPLIFY. THIS WILL BRING MORE WET CONDITIONS TO THE GULF COAST
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
THE BERING SEA WILL BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH JUST SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 12