Small Craft Advisory 341, NWS Anchorage, AK

855 
FZAK51 PAFC 081848 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1050 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

UPDATED ZONE 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090300-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH WED MORNING. AN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR SAND POINT AT
985 MB WED MORNING AND DRIFT TO 75 NM NORTHEAST OF CHIGNIK AT THE
SAME INTENSITY BY LATE WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-090300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-090300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-090300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090300-
PASSAGE CANAL
630 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. NEAR WHITTIER...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-090300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1050 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-090300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

JM

356 
FZAK51 PAFC 082247
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091500-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

AN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR CHIGNIK WED AFTERNOON AT 984 MB 
AND THEN WEAKEN OVER BRISTOL BAY ON THU. A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO
150 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY THU AFTERNOON AT 990 MB. 

$$

PKZ120-091500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-091500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-091500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-091500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10
KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-091500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-091500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-091500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-091500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-091500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

496 
FZAK51 PAFC 091145
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100300-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB ALEUTIAN LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB NEAR BRISTOL BAY LATE
WED NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND THU AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST GULF WED AFTERNOON AND REACH THE NORTH
GULF COAST WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ120-100300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT
INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SE WIND 35 KT
BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-100300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45
KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9
FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-100300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-100300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-100300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-100300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ141-100300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LOOK AT THE MORNING WEATHER MAP
CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA
REGION...WITH A CLOSED LOW IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF. AS THIS LOW
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THE OVERALL TROUGH IS LOSING
AMPLITUDE...CREATING INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN THE EASTERN GULF IS
PUSHING INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH
A SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD SHIELD AND STEADY/STRATIFORM RAIN. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS LEADING TO LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AND DELTA AREAS...WHICH IS
COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS IN THE REGION. FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THAT DROPPED OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS OVER THE WESTERN BERING
AND IS SUPPORTING A RELATIVELY WEAK 1000 MB SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF
ADAK. THIS IS BRINGING AN AREA OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. THE 00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER...TRYING TO
SPEED THE BERING LOW TO THE EAST QUICKER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE
OTHER MODELS. THE NAM IS ALSO AN OUTLIER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW
ONCE IT ARRIVES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE NAM FAVORS A NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT AND ELONGATION OF THE LOW CENTER WHILE THE EC AND GFS KEEP A
CONSOLIDATED CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY. THE EC AND GFS
WERE FAVORED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST...WITH INCREASING PREFERENCE
TOWARD HPC FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY WAVE IN THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN TODAY. OVERNIGHT MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY IN THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COPPER BASIN...ALSO LIKELY AFFECTING VALDEZ AND
CORDOVA. THIS SHOULD FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE OF A MIX THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN
PASSES. WHILE THE STEADY RAIN STAYS EAST OF ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU
VALLEY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN FOR DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY FROM THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS TO THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME DECENT SEA BREEZES AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AS WEAK
FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE ALLOW THE LAND TO WARM UP QUICKER THAN THE
WATER. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CURRENTLY OUT WEST WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO KODIAK
ISLAND...WITH DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SOUTHWEST...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BRISTOL BAY AND THE DELTA. DAYTIME HEATING INLAND
MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE FOG TO LIFT TO LOW STRATUS...BUT PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL TAKE UP A POSITION SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL REVERSE THE WINDS TO OFFSHORE WHICH
SHOULD MOVE THE LOW CLOUDS BACK OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AS THE
LOW CENTER SLOWS TO A CRAWL NEAR CHIGNIK.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...1001 MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF ADAK WILL
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOT AN
OVERLY WELL-ORGANIZED LOW...WITH RAGGED/ELONGATED APPEARANCE NOTED ON
SATELLITE. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A  PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. THE REGION GOES BACK INTO A COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW REGIME WITH SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...CONTINUING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE STATE.
HOWEVER...BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO
SUGGEST A LOW AMPLITUDE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE DEVELOPS AND BRINGS DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. IF TRUE...SUCH A PATTERN
TENDS TO BRING CLOUDCOVER AND STRATIFORM RAIN TO BOTH INLAND AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN ALASKA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT CONTINUED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND AND MORE
PERSISTENT RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 152
MARINE...GALE 130 132 172 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON MAY 12