Gale Warning 392, NWS Anchorage, AK

863 
FZAK52 PAFC 082335
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091500-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 997 MB LOW 120 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB 
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR CHIGNIK WED AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN 
DRIFT TO 35 NM SOUTHWEST OF KING SALMON THU AFTERNOON AT 989 MB.
$$

PKZ150-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-091500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-091500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-091500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-091500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREA OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-091500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-091500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1250 PM AKDT MON MAY 7 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE ALASKA REGION WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH
OF THE GULF. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH IS JUST BEGINNING
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WHILE SHORT-WAVES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND. ONE
SHORT-WAVE IS EXITING SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING AND TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ARE ALSO PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. SKIES CLEARED OVER THE COOK INLET/SUSITNA
VALLEY CORRIDOR BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE...BUT CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
FILLING BACK IN OVER LAND THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE
NEXT SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

A SHORT-WAVE NEAR KAMCHATKA IS DIGGING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OUT AHEAD
OF IT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE RAIN AND FOG IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE IN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER WITH SPEED OF LOW TRACKING
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. PREFER THE GFS/NAM WHICH
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SUPPORTED BY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...
AND BECAUSE THIS SOLUTION PROVIDES CONTINUITY WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SHORT-WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THUS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE OFF THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER...A SERIES
OF SHORT-WAVES CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL TRACK INTO THE
COPPER BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA RIGHT
NOW LOOKS LIKE STEADY STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
OF THESE SHORT-WAVES. MODELS DIFFER ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP
WITH NAM BRINGING RAIN TO THE DOORSTEP OF ANCHORAGE. BASED ON UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL BE BACKING WITH TIME DON'T THINK STEADY RAIN
WON'T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER THAN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE IT OVER THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. DO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THESE WESTERN AREAS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS ALEUTIAN
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF. THE RESULTS WILL BE SIMILAR WITH WEAK
UPPER WAVES AND COLD AIR ALOFT LEADING TO MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
INLAND WHILE STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS SETTLE IN ALONG THE GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
MAJOR FEATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OFTENTIMES WITH WEAK AND
VARIABLE FLOW. THIS MEANS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON
THE HIGH SIDE...LEADING TO PERSISTENT AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS.
WITH WEAK FORCING CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS UPPER LOW IS LIFTING UP THE FRONT SIDE
OF TROUGH AND SHORT-WAVE IS DIGGING DOWN BACK SIDE OF TROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. THIS MEANS LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK QUICKLY...REACHING KODIAK ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT-WAVE MOVING OVER TOP OF A STRONG RIDGE
OVER SIBERIA WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE ARCTIC WEDNESDAY AMPLIFYING
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN AND REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE BERING SEA REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND DYNAMIC THROUGH THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD.
NORMALLY THIS WOULD LEAD TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS SO CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE. THE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING MID WEEK
WILL PICK UP A PACIFIC LOW AND TRACK IT INTO THE GULF LATE THIS
WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXPECT THE BULK OF
STRATIFORM PRECIP TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME INLAND. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT WHILE ANOTHER DIGS OUT OF ASIA INTO THE
BERING SEA. SO EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE MAINLAND AS
THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A PACIFIC STORM TRACKING INTO THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 12