Small Craft Advisory 204, NWS Anchorage, AK

430 
FZAK51 PAFC 171141
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES THIS
MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS W.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
LIGHT WINDS NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN BEING THE PLACEMENT OF LOW CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE MID TERM MODELS
ARE ALSO DOING FINE BUT START TO DRIFT AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM.
HERE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY STARTS TO FALL APART WITH THE BIGGEST
DISCREPANCY BEING WITH THE EC. BECAUSE OF THIS HPC GUIDANCE WAS
CHOSEN AS THE PRIMARY SOLUTION IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW RESTS OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THAT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT
THE SURFACE THEIR IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS THAT ARE BRINGING BANDS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. WEAK RIDGING STILL RESIDES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
EXTENDING IN FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH PASSES ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE RIDGING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL KEEP THE CLEARER
SKIES OVER THE MORE INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL
SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS AS INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF. A MORE DOMINANT LOW THAT IS IN THE EASTERN GULF IS TRACKING
TOWARD THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND AS IT APPROACHES IT WILL
BRING THE CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL. SNOWFALL WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST IN THE SHORT TERM.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY IS
PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP IT SNOWING ALONG THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIP FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THIS REGION AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING FLOW TO
BEING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE ALEUTIANS UNTIL THE RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY
STARTING WITH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA IS WEAKENING WHICH WILL
REDUCE THE GUSTS GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A STRONG RIDGE WILL SETUP OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACK OVER THE WESTERN ALASKAN COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. BEHIND THE RIDGE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL DOMINATE BRINGING WARMER TEMPS TO AREAS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...132 138 150 155 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK MAR 12