Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 104, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY SMALL
VARIATIONS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOWS IN THE GULF.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA NEAR PORT
HEIDEN WHICH IS MOVING EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS DRIFTING TO THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO COVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. SOME CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, THE COOK INLET
AND THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY OTHERWISE, THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WAS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF SNOW WERE FOUND
OVER KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY, WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS KEPT THEM MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
SNOW SHOWERS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW NEAR PORT HEIDEN WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
SATURDAY THEN WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND BERING SEA WILL SWING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE BACK OVER THE AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MAINLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BRISTOL BAY
ZONE AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL SPREAD INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE
DELTA SATURDAY.

.BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
THE BERING SEA AND THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE GULF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF THE TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 12