Small Craft Advisory 203, NWS Anchorage, AK

017 
FZAK52 PAFC 171148
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180300-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-180300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-180300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-180300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-180300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...BERING SIDE...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE
10 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-180300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-180300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN BEING THE PLACEMENT OF LOW CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE MID TERM MODELS
ARE ALSO DOING FINE BUT START TO DRIFT AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM.
HERE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY STARTS TO FALL APART WITH THE BIGGEST
DISCREPANCY BEING WITH THE EC. BECAUSE OF THIS HPC GUIDANCE WAS
CHOSEN AS THE PRIMARY SOLUTION IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW RESTS OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THAT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT
THE SURFACE THEIR IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS THAT ARE BRINGING BANDS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. WEAK RIDGING STILL RESIDES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
EXTENDING IN FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH PASSES ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE RIDGING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL KEEP THE CLEARER
SKIES OVER THE MORE INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL
SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS AS INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF. A MORE DOMINANT LOW THAT IS IN THE EASTERN GULF IS TRACKING
TOWARD THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND AS IT APPROACHES IT WILL
BRING THE CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL. SNOWFALL WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST IN THE SHORT TERM.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY IS
PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP IT SNOWING ALONG THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIP FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THIS REGION AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING FLOW TO
BEING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE ALEUTIANS UNTIL THE RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY
STARTING WITH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA IS WEAKENING WHICH WILL
REDUCE THE GUSTS GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A STRONG RIDGE WILL SETUP OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACK OVER THE WESTERN ALASKAN COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. BEHIND THE RIDGE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL DOMINATE BRINGING WARMER TEMPS TO AREAS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...132 138 150 155 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK MAR 12