Small Craft Advisory 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

823 
FZAK51 PAFC 121240
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130300-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 972 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
ONSHORE NEAR KING SALMON SUN NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUN AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF MON MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-130300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND
40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-130300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-130300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-130300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-130300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-130300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-130300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-130300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-130300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1200 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM EASTERN ASIA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. MAINLAND ALASKA IS IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE UPPER
JET AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CURVING NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN
ALASKA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER THIS MORNING IS A VERTICALLY
STACKED 960 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHICH IS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW IS PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER IS ALONG THE OCCLUDED
FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. A BARRIER JET HAS FORMED AS
INDICATED BY 50KT WINDS AT BUOY 46061 NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
THE FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED...SO IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO CONTINUE TODAY
IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. THE NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE
MAINLAND IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEEPEN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
WITHOUT MUCH MOVEMENT IN THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN EXPECT IT TO TAKE
A VERY SIMILAR TRACK TO THE CURRENT LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THERE ARE SOME MINOR POSITION DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE BERING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS GREAT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...SO IT IS PREFERRED FOR THIS LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
SYSTEM MEANS STRONG SOUTHERLIES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND WATERS. WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM WIND AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS CAUSING THE EAST/WEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE. AS THE LOW REACHES THE SAME LATITUDE
AS ANCHORAGE THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SWITCH CAUSING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOVE INTO TOWN. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE SOUTH THE AFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPING WILL DIMINISH. MEANWHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND BRING
A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL TAKE
NEARLY A TRACK NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM...WITH VERY
SIMILAR IMPACTS. THUS...DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER AND FURTHER ALONG IN ITS LIFE
CYCLE. THEREFORE...NOT AS MUCH WARM AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT NORTHWARD
AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER A
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE PORTAGE VALLEY/EAST TURNAGAIN ARM AREA
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RIGHT NEAR FREEZING. A SECOND DIFFERENCE
WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS THE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHTER (THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA/WESTERN CANADA). THUS...EXPECT
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER (BUT BELOW WARNING
LEVEL). FINALLY...THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER ONSHORE BEFORE IT WEAKENS. THIS MAY
BRING MORE WIND INTO THOMPSON PASS AND PRODUCE A BLIZZARD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH MONDAY WITH SIMILAR WEATHER AS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM.

A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE BACK OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH SUNDAY AND LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST THAN THE FIRST
TWO SYSTEMS. AMPLIFICATION OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL CAUSE IT TO
BEND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW WILL BOMB
AS IT NEARS THE ALEUTIANS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THAT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A DEEP UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE BERING SEA FOR THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD FOCUSING
MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER OUT WEST. THE MAINLAND WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY...GENERALLY REMAINING ON THE QUIET
SIDE...THOUGH WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...150 155.
         GALE WARNING...120 125 130 132 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB FEB 12