Small Craft Advisory 114, NWS Anchorage, AK

649 
FZAK51 PAFC 110029
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF SAT NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST ON SUN. A 950 MB LOW 260 NM SOUTH OF 
COLD BAY WILL WEAKEN TO 967 MB AS IT MOVES TO 75 NM SOUTH OF
DILLINGHAM EARLY SAT EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT 
HEADS TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA ON SUN. 
$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND
50 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING
TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT W OF THE 
BARREN ISLANDS. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 
26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO
19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SEAS 30 FT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...SEAS 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEE EC AND NAM MODELS DISSIPATE THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE GULF FRIDAY
EVENING WHILE THE GFS MODEL MOVES IT IN THE WESTERN GULF BEFORE
DISSIPATING IT FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE EC/NAM SOLUTION APPEARS TO
BE MORE REALISTIC.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA AND AND
THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS IS CAUSING STORMS TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC THEN TURN NORTH ONTO MAINLAND ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO NORTH TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF. ANOTHER
LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. AN
OLD LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CANADA INTO THE EASTERN MAINLAND HAS
INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA PRODUCING GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE
INTO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN SPREAD AS
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA, COPPER RIVER
BASIN, ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CHANGE
BACK TO RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS...WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING DISSIPATES
OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL CHANGE TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A NEW LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC TONIGHT WILL TURN NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SPREAD INTO BRISTOL BAY AS SNOW SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA SATURDAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOWS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THEN TURN
NORTH INTO WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125 130 140 150 155 160 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM FEB 12