Small Craft Advisory 111, NWS Anchorage, AK

089 
FZAK51 PAFC 101254
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA FRI AFTERNOON. A 952 MB LOW 325 NM SOUTHEAST OF
UNALASKA FRI AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 100 NM EAST OF SAND POINT AT 959
MB SAT MORNING THEN WEAKEN TO 971 MB NEAR DILLINGHAM SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT
4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH THE LOW IN THE EASTERN
GULF...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THERE ARE THEN SOME
DISAGREEMENTS OVER LOW TRACKS AND INTENSITIES IN THE PACIFIC...AND
CONFIDENCE SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASES WITH THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...THE GFS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN THE ECMWF WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE BEYOND THAT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGING OF WESTERN
CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
AFFECTING THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BRINGING RELATIVELY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE...AND IS RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION THAT IS RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE OF NOTE
THIS MORNING IS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GULF IS GOING TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AROUND PORTAGE
ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES
ACCOMPANYING THE PRECIPITATION. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT LEAN TOWARD
A WARM SOLUTION...HOWEVER THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TODAY. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH SOUTH OF KING SALMON. THAT LOW WILL DISSIPATE IN
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TOMORROW...AND ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY. WITH THIS NEXT
LOW...MORE RAIN...SNOW...AND WIND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
AND SOUTHERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF LOWS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
MODELS IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SO VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...161
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 138 155 160 170 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE