Blizzard Watch 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

261 
WWAK41 PAFC 101810
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
910 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

AKZ125-101915-
/X.CAN.PAFC.BZ.A.0017.120211T0600Z-120211T1900Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
910 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

...BLIZZARD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN
ARM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH. 


$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ARE
WITH THE NEXT TWO LOWS THAT ARE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENT IDEAS ON LOW TRACKS AND
INTENSITIES...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST SOUTHEAST SOLUTION. THE GFS
WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR BOTH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

FOR THE EXTENDED...WE STUCK CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL AT THIS TIME.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGING OF WESTERN
CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
AFFECTING THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST
THIS MORNING...AND A MID-950S MB LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY ON IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG COOK INLET
AND THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA...BEFORE THE TURNAGAIN ARM
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING RETURNS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE ANCHORAGE
AREA WILL GET SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THIS LOW DISSIPATES TONIGHT...THE NEXT LOW TO AFFECT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND ON
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR PORTAGE ON SATURDAY.
SINCE THE GFS IS TRENDING COLDER AND THE CERTAINTY REMAINS...WE WILL
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH AND CONTINUE MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WARNING
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS WINDS WITH THE TRAIN OF LOWS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...BUT THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
EACH LOW REMAINS IN QUESTION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE LOWS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH...125
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 130 132 138 140 150 160 165 170 172
                        175
         STORM WARNING...155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE