Gale Warning 673, NWS Anchorage, AK

347 
FZAK51 PAFC 152104 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
105 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

UPDATED ZONE 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160300-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 977 MB LOW CENTER 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY TODAY MOVES TO
160 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND WEAKENS TO 980 MB TONIGHT
THEN MOVES TO 100 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD AT 999 MB TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-160300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-160300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-160300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-160300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-160300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 
TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN 
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-160300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. S OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-160300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-160300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-160300-
KACHEMAK BAY
105 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

138 
FZAK51 PAFC 152332
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 976 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 25 NM
NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON AT 986 MB. THIS LOW WILL 
THEN MOVE TO 130 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WED AFTERNOON 
AT 998 MB.
$$

PKZ120-161500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SW WIND 25 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT
BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-161500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-161500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-161500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 12
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-161500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-161500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-161500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-161500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
REASONABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY
OF THE PATTERN IN THE GULF. DIFFERENCES THAT DO EXIST IN THE GULF ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR. HOWEVER...THE NAM BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM (WED
AFTERNOON) PUSHES A LOWER 990'S LOW CENTER NORTH INTO THE NE GULF.
THIS SOLUTION DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF/GFS 12Z RUNS.
SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF AT THIS TIME
FRAME.

UPPER LEVELS(500MB)...
A LOW CENTER APPROACHING THE SE GULF MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY CENTER CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THE THE AK
PEN INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA MON MORNING
THEN WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE EASTERN GULF MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
YET ANOTHER CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE MOVES TO NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND TUE. A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUE.

.SURFACE...A 976 MB LOW OVER THE EAST GULF WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND
OVER SE ALASKA. THE LOW CENTER NEAR KODIAK WEAKENS AS A CENTER
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CENTER THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TONIGHT AND WEAKENS THROUGH MON.
A SECONDARY LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE MOVES TO
THE EASTERN GULF TUE...WITH YET ANOTHER CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF TUE EVENING. OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS
HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
PINCH BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE GULF LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE BRISK
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...AK PEN...AND SW ALASKA THROUGH
TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING WAVE SPREAD MOISTURE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...INLAND
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN. COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE KENAI PEN/COOK INLET REGIONS ON MON AND TUE...SO ANY
LINGERING OR MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD FALL AS SNOW.
MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE LIGHT ON QPF OVER COOK INLET/ANCHORAGE BOWL
MON NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD
PROBABLY SEE A LEAST SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD AIR INTERACTS WITH WARMER
INLET WATERS. THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH MON WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...BECOMING MORE MIXED TUE NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST...
BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW MAINLAND IN THE SQUEEZED
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH MAINLY ONLY SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE LION'S SHARE OF STEADY PRECIPITATION IS OVER
BRISTOL BAY...AND FALLING AS SNOW DUE TO A WELL ESTABLISHED COOL
AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION HERE WILL TAPER OF THIS EVENING AS OVERRUNNING
ENDS. BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW IN IT'S WAKE WILL KEEP WESTERN FACING
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES UNDER THE GUN FOR PERSISTENT
SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER. CONDITIONS REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL INTO MIDWEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CHAIN BACK THROUGH THE
AKPEN. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING LOW
IN THE GULF AND STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. MODERATELY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE AKPEN...ENHANCED AT TIMES BY
SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER-LOW IN THE GULF MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF LATE THIS
WEEK...WITH UPPER-RIDGING FROM THE BERING SEA EXPANDING EAST TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS SHOULD HELP DRY CONDITIONS OUT ALBEIT WITH
CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. GUSTY NORTH TO WEST OUTFLOW WINDS
TO ALSO BE A CONSIDERATION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE LOW EXITS
EAST. MODELS SHOW A LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA LATE WEEK
SWINGING A FRONT TO THE WESTERN CHAIN AND BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 179 180 352
                414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 12