Gale Warning 631, NWS Anchorage, AK

131 
FZAK61 PAFC 151127
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-160300-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 977 MB LOW CENTER AT 57N 149W TODAY MOVES TO 58N 143W AND WEAKENS
TO 980 MB TONIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 59N 149W AT 999 MB TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-160300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-160300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

611 
FZAK61 PAFC 152321
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-161200-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 976 MB LOW NEAR 58N 146W WILL MOVE TO 60N 146W TUE AFTERNOON 
AT 986 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 58N 143W WED AFTERNOON 
AT 998 MB.
$$

PKZ351-161200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-161200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN OCT 14 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
REASONABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY
OF THE PATTERN IN THE GULF. DIFFERENCES THAT DO EXIST IN THE GULF ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR. HOWEVER...THE NAM BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM (WED
AFTERNOON) PUSHES A LOWER 990'S LOW CENTER NORTH INTO THE NE GULF.
THIS SOLUTION DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF/GFS 12Z RUNS.
SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF AT THIS TIME
FRAME.

UPPER LEVELS(500MB)...
A LOW CENTER APPROACHING THE SE GULF MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY CENTER CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THE THE AK
PEN INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA MON MORNING
THEN WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE EASTERN GULF MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
YET ANOTHER CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE MOVES TO NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND TUE. A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUE.

.SURFACE...A 976 MB LOW OVER THE EAST GULF WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND
OVER SE ALASKA. THE LOW CENTER NEAR KODIAK WEAKENS AS A CENTER
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CENTER THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TONIGHT AND WEAKENS THROUGH MON.
A SECONDARY LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE MOVES TO
THE EASTERN GULF TUE...WITH YET ANOTHER CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF TUE EVENING. OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS
HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
PINCH BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE GULF LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE BRISK
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...AK PEN...AND SW ALASKA THROUGH
TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING WAVE SPREAD MOISTURE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...INLAND
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN. COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE KENAI PEN/COOK INLET REGIONS ON MON AND TUE...SO ANY
LINGERING OR MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD FALL AS SNOW.
MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE LIGHT ON QPF OVER COOK INLET/ANCHORAGE BOWL
MON NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD
PROBABLY SEE A LEAST SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD AIR INTERACTS WITH WARMER
INLET WATERS. THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH MON WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...BECOMING MORE MIXED TUE NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST...
BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW MAINLAND IN THE SQUEEZED
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH MAINLY ONLY SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE LION'S SHARE OF STEADY PRECIPITATION IS OVER
BRISTOL BAY...AND FALLING AS SNOW DUE TO A WELL ESTABLISHED COOL
AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION HERE WILL TAPER OF THIS EVENING AS OVERRUNNING
ENDS. BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW IN IT'S WAKE WILL KEEP WESTERN FACING
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES UNDER THE GUN FOR PERSISTENT
SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER. CONDITIONS REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL INTO MIDWEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CHAIN BACK THROUGH THE
AKPEN. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING LOW
IN THE GULF AND STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. MODERATELY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE AKPEN...ENHANCED AT TIMES BY
SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER-LOW IN THE GULF MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF LATE THIS
WEEK...WITH UPPER-RIDGING FROM THE BERING SEA EXPANDING EAST TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS SHOULD HELP DRY CONDITIONS OUT ALBEIT WITH
CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. GUSTY NORTH TO WEST OUTFLOW WINDS
TO ALSO BE A CONSIDERATION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE LOW EXITS
EAST. MODELS SHOW A LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA LATE WEEK
SWINGING A FRONT TO THE WESTERN CHAIN AND BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 179 180 352
                414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 12