Gale Warning 530, NWS Anchorage, AK

888 
FZAK62 PAFC 182331
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-191500-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 59N 168W WILL WEAKEN TO 993 MB AND MOVE ONSHORE
NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND TONIGHT. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP TUE EVENING
NEAR 54N 158W...THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A 999 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 57N 177E TUE AFTERNOON...THEN
STRENGTHEN TO 992 AND MOVE TO 50N 179W WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 20 KT IN THE LATE MORNING.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE BERING INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...WHILE
A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BOTH FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER LEVEL JET BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION AND HELP TO
SURGE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA REGION. THIS WILL
DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...WHILE MODELS ARE INITIALLY IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...THEY DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND PROGRESSES
INLAND TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AND SO THE NAM WAS
FAVORED FOR THIS FORECAST. DUE TO THE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATION...INTENSITY AND TIMING OF
LOCAL GAP WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON...TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AND SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS. THE WEAKER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND SUPPORT STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
GULF COAST AS IT DISSIPATES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. A MUCH MORE
FORMIDABLE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA.

WITH SOILS ALREADY SATURATED...AND WITH SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS AT
OR NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE...FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION
OF STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A LOW CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ST PAUL IS SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS
AND RAIN ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND ACROSS THE AKPEN AS ITS FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD INTO BRISTOL BAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. A MORE
IMPRESSIVE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION AND THEN INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN BERING AND
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...A
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE WESTERN BERING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LOCAL GAPS AND LOCAL FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101
         FLOOD WARNING...135 145
MARINE...GALE...120 125 129 130 132 140 150 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN SEP 12