Flood Watch 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

982 
WGAK68 PAFC 182032
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1232 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AKZ145-190845-
/X.EXA.PAFC.FA.A.0005.120919T1200Z-120921T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
1232 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE SUSITNA VALLEY. 

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED SOILS TO BE
  SATURATED AND MANY SMALL STREAMS TO BE BANKFULL. WEATHER MODELS
  INDICATE SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL BETWEEN
  NOW AND THURSDAY. 

* IMPACTS...THIS WILL CAUSE RISES IN MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
  THE SUSITNA VALLEY...ESPECIALLY WILLOW CREEK...MONTANA
  CREEK...AND THE YETNA AND SKWENTNA RIVERS. THESE AND
  NEIGHBORING RIVERS MAY RISE RAPIDLY TO BANK FULL LEVELS AND
  FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

AKZ125-190845-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0005.120919T1200Z-120921T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
1232 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. 

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH 
  SOME AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOWING AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 9 
  INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE 
  AREA DRAINING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND IN THE SEWARD AREA 
  WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO BANK FULL LEVELS AND FLOODING IS 
  POSSIBLE. 

* IMPACTS...SMALL STREAMS WILL RISE RAPIDLY AND MAY EXCEED BANK 
  FULL LEVELS. MINOR FLOODING AND URBAN DRAINAGE PROBLEMS ARE 
  LIKELY. IF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXCEEDED... 
  MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE 
  SITUATIONS WHERE GRAVEL AND SEDIMENT DEPOSITS ON STREAM BEDS 
  HAVE RAISED THE CHANNEL BOTTOM...LEADING TO FLOODING AS STREAM 
  CAPACITY IS EXCEEDED MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE PAST. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

AKZ131-190845-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0005.120919T1200Z-120921T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
1232 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. 

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH 
  SOME AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOWING AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 9 
  INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE 
  AREA DRAINING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND IN THE VALDEZ AREA 
  WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO BANK FULL LEVELS AND FLOODING IS 
  POSSIBLE. 

* IMPACTS...SMALL STREAMS WILL RISE RAPIDLY AND MAY EXCEED BANK 
  FULL LEVELS. MINOR FLOODING AND URBAN DRAINAGE PROBLEMS ARE 
  LIKELY. IF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXCEEDED... 
  MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE 
  SITUATIONS WHERE GRAVEL AND SEDIMENT DEPOSITS ON STREAM BEDS 
  HAVE RAISED THE CHANNEL BOTTOM...LEADING TO FLOODING AS STREAM 
  CAPACITY IS EXCEEDED MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE PAST. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

605 
WGAK68 PAFC 190126
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
526 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AKZ101-191900-
/X.EXA.PAFC.FA.A.0005.120919T1200Z-120921T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
526 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ANCHORAGE. 

* FROM 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED SOILS TO BE 
  SATURATED AND MANY SMALL STREAMS TO BE BANKFULL. WEATHER 
  MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL 
  BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY. 

* IMPACTS...THIS WILL CAUSE RISES IN MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
  THE GREATER ANCHORAGE BOWL. CAMPBELL CREEK...EAGLE
  RIVER...TWENTYMILE AND OTHER LOCAL RIVERS MAY RAPIDLY REACH OR
  EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

AKZ125-191900-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0005.120919T1200Z-120921T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
526 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. 

* FROM 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH 
  SOME AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOWING AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 9 
  INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE 
  AREA DRAINING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND IN THE SEWARD AREA 
  WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO BANK FULL LEVELS AND FLOODING IS 
  POSSIBLE. 

* IMPACTS...SMALL STREAMS WILL RISE RAPIDLY AND MAY EXCEED BANK 
  FULL LEVELS. MINOR FLOODING AND URBAN DRAINAGE PROBLEMS ARE 
  LIKELY. IF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXCEEDED... 
  MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE 
  SITUATIONS WHERE GRAVEL AND SEDIMENT DEPOSITS ON STREAM BEDS 
  HAVE RAISED THE CHANNEL BOTTOM...LEADING TO FLOODING AS STREAM 
  CAPACITY IS EXCEEDED MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE PAST. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

AKZ131-191900-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0005.120919T1200Z-120921T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
526 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. 

* FROM 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH 
  SOME AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOWING AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 9 
  INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE 
  AREA DRAINING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND IN THE VALDEZ AREA 
  WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO BANK FULL LEVELS AND FLOODING IS 
  POSSIBLE. 

* IMPACTS...SMALL STREAMS WILL RISE RAPIDLY AND MAY EXCEED BANK 
  FULL LEVELS. MINOR FLOODING AND URBAN DRAINAGE PROBLEMS ARE 
  LIKELY. IF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXCEEDED... 
  MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE 
  SITUATIONS WHERE GRAVEL AND SEDIMENT DEPOSITS ON STREAM BEDS 
  HAVE RAISED THE CHANNEL BOTTOM...LEADING TO FLOODING AS STREAM 
  CAPACITY IS EXCEEDED MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE PAST. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

AKZ145-191900-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0005.120919T1200Z-120921T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
526 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* SUSITNA VALLEY. 

* FROM 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED SOILS TO BE 
  SATURATED AND MANY SMALL STREAMS TO BE BANKFULL. WEATHER 
  MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL 
  BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY. 

* IMPACTS...THIS WILL CAUSE RISES IN MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS IN 
  THE SUSITNA VALLEY...ESPECIALLY WILLOW CREEK...MONTANA CREEK...
   AND THE YETNA AND SKWENTNA RIVERS. THESE AND NEIGHBORING 
  RIVERS MAY RISE RAPIDLY TO BANK FULL LEVELS AND FLOODING IS 
  POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

773 
WGAK68 PAFC 190626
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1026 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012


AKZ101-125-131-145-190730-
/X.CAN.PAFC.FA.A.0005.120919T1200Z-120921T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANCHORAGE-WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS...VALDEZ...
THOMPSON PASS...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
1026 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF ALASKA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS
FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL ZONE/LOCATION.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. RAIN
IS AGAIN OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A BERING SEA SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ANCHORAGE ARE RAMPING UP ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE BERING SEA COMPRISED OF TWO MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERS...ONE
OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTH FROM KAMCHATKA.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES A SHORTWAVE IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
150 KT JET DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH HELPING TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW ALONG A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE NORTHCENTRAL PACIFIC.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A
POSITIVELY ORIENTED TROUGH ALOFT AND MOIST BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE
SURFACE...THE FIRST LENDING CREEDENCE TO A FASTER WEAKER SYSTEM AND
THE LATTER A STRONGER SLOWER ONE. THE 00Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS CAUGHT
ON TO A MORE DEVELOPED SLOWER SURFACE LOW MOVING TOWARD NUNIVAK
ISLAND TODAY BUT ALL ARE STILL OFF ON POSITION BASED OFF OF WATER
VAPOR/IR IMAGERY. THE MODEL STRUGGLES CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
THE ALASKAN PENINSULA LATE TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ENVELOP THE BETTER
PORTION OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL SAVE FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. GUSTY
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE AFFECTING ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS
MORNING DESPITE AN UNFAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT...LIKELY DUE TO LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH THAN SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SO FAR WEST AND NO TRIPLE POINT LOW TO SPEAK OF. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ESPECIALLY FOR GULF COAST LOCATIONS.
A SHORT BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SWINGS ANOTHER FRONT OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PACK
A MUCH BIGGER PUNCH WITH THAT FIRST...SUPPORTING VERY STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH SOILS
SATURATED AND SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY NEAR
FLOOD STAGE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONT HAS PASSED MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHWEST ALREADY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AS WELL AS
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL SEND A FRONT OVER
THE AREA BRINGING LOTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE BERING
WILL KEEP A VERY SHOWERY REGIME IN PLACE. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SHOT OF
RAIN FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LATE THIS WEEK A MATURE STRONG LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE UP
TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FINALLY
BREAK THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS...BUT
GENERAL TROUGHING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE BERING KEEPING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN NONE THE LESS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125
         FLOOD WARNING 135
         FLOOD WATCH 125 131
MARINE...STORM 120 125 130
         GALE 121 127 128 129 132 138 141 150 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL SEP 12