Freezing Rain Advisory 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

901 
WWAK42 PAFC 090603
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
903 PM AKST SAT DEC 8 2012

AKZ195-090715-
/X.EXP.PAFC.BZ.W.0055.000000T0000Z-121209T0600Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
903 PM AKST SAT DEC 8 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

VISIBILITIES IN THE AREA HAVE IMPROVED TO ONE HALF MILE OR MORE.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

$$

AKZ155-090900-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0055.000000T0000Z-121209T0900Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
903 PM AKST SAT DEC 8 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* SNOW...UP TO 3 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS 
  EVENING. SNOW INTENSITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL 
  WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO IMPROVE VISIBILITY. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVELING WILL 
  BECOME VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ161-090715-
/X.CON.PAFC.ZR.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-121209T0700Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
903 PM AKST SAT DEC 8 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKST THIS
EVENING NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKST THIS EVENING.
THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED.

* LOCATION...NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON.

* ICE ACCUMULATION...TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE 
  EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN TONIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND OTHER OUTDOOR SURFACES MAY BECOME SLICK. 
  TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

481 
WWAK42 PAFC 090705
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1005 PM AKST SAT DEC 8 2012

AKZ161-090815-
/X.EXP.PAFC.ZR.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-121209T0700Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
1005 PM AKST SAT DEC 8 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED NORTH AND WEST OF KING
SALMON...

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT BRISTOL BAY HAVE MOSTLY WARMED TO ABOVE
FREEZING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING...WITH SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN NORTH OF DILLINGHAM FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

$$

AKZ155-090900-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0055.000000T0000Z-121209T0900Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
1005 PM AKST SAT DEC 8 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* SNOW...UP TO 3 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS 
  EVENING. SNOW INTENSITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL 
  WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO IMPROVE VISIBILITY. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVELING WILL 
  BECOME VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKST SAT DEC 8 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE AND STRONG STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS BRINGING AN END TO A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF
ALASKA TODAY. THE LOW BOTTOMED OUT AROUND 949 MB THIS MORNING AND
WILL NOW BEGIN THE PROCESS OF FILLING AND WEAKENING. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING A MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BERING AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND SNOW OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY...THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO SPREAD TO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS THE FRONT MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS CHANGED PRECIPITATION
TO ALL RAIN FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
KODIAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WITH JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY IN
TRACK OF PACIFIC LOW INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. THERE IS A TREND
TOWARD A FASTER AND FURTHER EAST TRACK. THE GFS SOLUTION PROVIDES
A NICE MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION. MEANWHILE...OUT WEST MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH HANDLING OF A COMPLEX SERIES OF LOWS MOVING OUT
OF ASIA AND INTO THE BERING AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WEEK. PREFER TO MAKE SMALL CHANGES FOR NOW USING AN AVERAGE
POSITION OF THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TRIPLE
POINT WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON TO
PRINCE SOUND TONIGHT. THE TRACK OF THIS TRIPLE POINT IS KEY BECAUSE
THE WARMEST AIR WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIPLE
POINT WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TRIPLE POINT. THEREFORE...EXPECT PRECIP TO STAY MOSTLY SNOW
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HEAVY PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND
THEN DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.
SIMILARLY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LOW OUT WEST WILL WEAKEN
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND CONTINUE TO SEND UPPER WAVES THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL. NONE OF THESE WAVES LOOKS VERY STRONG...SO EXPECT
ACCUMULATION TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THINGS WILL DRY OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM EXIT
TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER BRISTOL BAY
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT AS THE TRIPLE POINT MOVES EASTWARD INTO ACROSS THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND THE FRONT STRETCHES APART. WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY. HOWEVER...THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST HELPING
TO MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY
BECOME A PROBLEM BEHIND THE FRONT PRIMARILY FROM DILLINGHAM
NORTHWARD TO AROUND KOLIGANEK. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE EITHER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AFTER THE
BLIZZARD WARNING EXPIRES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES UP
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA ON SUNDAY EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING ENDING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
MEANWHILE...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MOVES IN AND
THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK INLAND TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING BACK IN BEHIND IT AND
CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. THE REGION WILL DRY OUT MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WINDS AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
WEAKENS. COLDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING OUT
OF ASIA WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THANKS TO PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD. THIS MEANS A FAST AND ACTIVE
STORM TRACK ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DON'T
HANDLE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THE FAST FLOW VERY WELL...SO IT
LIKELY WILL BECOME DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXPECTED WEATHER
VERY FAR OUT IN TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 131 155 161 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 130 140 150 155 170.
         GALE WARNING...127 125 129 132 138 141 160 165
                        172 176 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 12