Brisk Wind Advisory 100, NWS Anchorage, AK

224 
FZAK52 PAFC 091551 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
650 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

UPDATED ZONES 165 170 171 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100300-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 969 MB LOW 120 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. 
A PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 300 NM WEST OF SHEMYA MON NIGHT 
AT 963 MB.
$$

PKZ150-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
32 FT SUBSIDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-100300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-100300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
650 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-100300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
650 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
BERING SIDE...SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-100300-
UNALASKA BAY
650 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-100300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-100300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

231 
FZAK52 PAFC 100028
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 MB LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUN NIGHT AND MON.
A 982 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN TO 963 MB 
AS IT MOVES TO 260 NM WEST OF SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL
THEN MOVE TO 80 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON AT 968 MB.

$$

PKZ150-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-101500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN 
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.

.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-101500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-101500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-101500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 19 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-101500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-101500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKST SAT DEC 8 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE AND STRONG STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS BRINGING AN END TO A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF
ALASKA TODAY. THE LOW BOTTOMED OUT AROUND 949 MB THIS MORNING AND
WILL NOW BEGIN THE PROCESS OF FILLING AND WEAKENING. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING A MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BERING AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND SNOW OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY...THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO SPREAD TO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS THE FRONT MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS CHANGED PRECIPITATION
TO ALL RAIN FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
KODIAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WITH JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY IN
TRACK OF PACIFIC LOW INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. THERE IS A TREND
TOWARD A FASTER AND FURTHER EAST TRACK. THE GFS SOLUTION PROVIDES
A NICE MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION. MEANWHILE...OUT WEST MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH HANDLING OF A COMPLEX SERIES OF LOWS MOVING OUT
OF ASIA AND INTO THE BERING AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WEEK. PREFER TO MAKE SMALL CHANGES FOR NOW USING AN AVERAGE
POSITION OF THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TRIPLE
POINT WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON TO
PRINCE SOUND TONIGHT. THE TRACK OF THIS TRIPLE POINT IS KEY BECAUSE
THE WARMEST AIR WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIPLE
POINT WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TRIPLE POINT. THEREFORE...EXPECT PRECIP TO STAY MOSTLY SNOW
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HEAVY PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND
THEN DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.
SIMILARLY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LOW OUT WEST WILL WEAKEN
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND CONTINUE TO SEND UPPER WAVES THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL. NONE OF THESE WAVES LOOKS VERY STRONG...SO EXPECT
ACCUMULATION TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THINGS WILL DRY OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM EXIT
TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER BRISTOL BAY
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT AS THE TRIPLE POINT MOVES EASTWARD INTO ACROSS THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND THE FRONT STRETCHES APART. WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY. HOWEVER...THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST HELPING
TO MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY
BECOME A PROBLEM BEHIND THE FRONT PRIMARILY FROM DILLINGHAM
NORTHWARD TO AROUND KOLIGANEK. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE EITHER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AFTER THE
BLIZZARD WARNING EXPIRES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES UP
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA ON SUNDAY EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING ENDING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
MEANWHILE...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MOVES IN AND
THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK INLAND TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING BACK IN BEHIND IT AND
CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. THE REGION WILL DRY OUT MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WINDS AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
WEAKENS. COLDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING OUT
OF ASIA WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THANKS TO PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD. THIS MEANS A FAST AND ACTIVE
STORM TRACK ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DON'T
HANDLE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THE FAST FLOW VERY WELL...SO IT
LIKELY WILL BECOME DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXPECTED WEATHER
VERY FAR OUT IN TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 131 155 161 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 130 140 150 155 170.
         GALE WARNING...127 125 129 132 138 141 160 165
                        172 176 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 12