Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Aberdeen, SD

210 
WWUS53 KABR 250352
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1052 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

SDC065-117-119-250401-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-120725T0415Z/
SULLY SD-HUGHES SD-STANLEY SD-
1052 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL STANLEY...NORTHWESTERN
HUGHES AND SOUTH CENTRAL SULLY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY...HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4469 10014 4441 9990 4425 10054 4446 10068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 247DEG 28KT 4448 10021

$$
PARKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
949 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM
CDT...BUT HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTH IN COVERAGE TO JONES/LYMAN
COUNTY. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS INCREASING THIS EVENING
WEST AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KPIR. THERE IS ALSO
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING/DEVELOPING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING AS WELL. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING/MOVING NEWD ALONG AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

NOT A PARTICULARLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TNT GIVEN CURRENT
CAP ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST MSAS INDICATES A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR K9V9 AS ENERGY RIDES INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
WEAK ELEVATED THUNDER HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CWA DUE TO INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEMS.
FOR TNT S/W OVER SOUTHWEST ND/NORTHWEST SD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
E-NE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY CRASH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PRETTY HEALTHY
EML OVERTOP THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WARM SECTOR AS IT MOVES
EAST. THUS HAVE TO WONDER IF SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL INDEED BE
ABLE TO FIRE UP? MOST MODEL RUNS INCLUDING GFS ENSEMBLES/SREF NOW
INDICATE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR AN MCS SPREADING ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND PERHAPS CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ABR CWA ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CAP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA IS ADEQUATE
FOR SUPERCELLS BUT THE BETTER NUMBERS ARE UP IN NORTH DAKOTA.
LIKEWISE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR ISNT HALF BAD ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER
THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS IN MIND IF STORMS GET
GOING. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE VIA PWAT PROGS LOOKS STRONGEST OVER
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THAT COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAIN
AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA AND THUS WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF SUCH IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT
A REFRESHING SFC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A MID LEVEL TROF DIVING TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME ENERGY FROM THAT TROF SKIRTS THE
FAR NORTHEAST CWA ON THURSDAY AND COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS DRY AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN SHOULD DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THAT SURFACE HIGH FILTERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE DECENT AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING LONG TERM TRENDS. THE FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...REMINISCENT OF THE RECENT REGIME WITH
SEVERAL MINOR DIFFERENCES. THE FLOW WILL FEATURE SEVERAL WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES TO PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION...BUT
AGAIN...TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES...H7 TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN
LOW TEENS CELSIUS...LESS OF A CAP THAN IN RECENT DAYS. THE
CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS A LITTLE MORE WESTWARDS IN
COMPARISON...SO MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE
VS WHEN TAPPING THE HIGHER HUMIDITY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SO
ANTICIPATE A GREATER PERIOD OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR FOR LESS OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MODERATED...MORE LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CONTINUING TO MENTION
THUNDER IN THE TAFS FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST...SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHWEST
BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
456 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-251000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
456 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012 /356 AM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

TMT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

SDZ033-045-250345-
JONES-STANLEY-
900 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN JONES
AND SOUTHERN STANLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM MDT/1045 PM CDT/...

AT 957 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VAN METRE...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF MURDO...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE WENDTE AND FORT PIERRE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING/300 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING/ FOR NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

CONNELLY