Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Aberdeen, SD

520 
WWUS53 KABR 250958
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
458 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

SDC013-045-089-251009-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0144.000000T0000Z-120725T1030Z/
MCPHERSON SD-EDMUNDS SD-BROWN SD-
458 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BROWN...NORTHEASTERN
EDMUNDS AND SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH 
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4563 9798 4547 9884 4576 9899 4595 9855
      4594 9818
TIME...MOT...LOC 0959Z 249DEG 34KT 4572 9847

$$
PARKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
405 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MCS IS WELL UNDERWAY OVER MINNESOTA WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY RESIDES. SFC LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST FROM ABR TO PIR. ANOTHER MCS IS LOCATED
OVER THE WESTERN CWA AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPILLS OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WANING LATER THIS MORNING.
ISSUED A PRE FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO CAPTURE HIGH POPS THIS MORNING
BEFORE THINGS BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER 12Z.

AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY...DRIER AIR
WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SFC WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. BY THE AFTERNOON...BASICALLY ALL THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY. COLDER AIR ALOFT BEGINS
SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS DEVELOPING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER...MORE SO ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA WHERE RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER. THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY SET UP. ALTHOUGH...BEST MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS EAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS WHICH WILL FEEL
COOL COMPARED TO THE WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT LOWS OF RECENT.
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK HARD TO TIME
SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATING
PATTERN...AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE OCCASIONAL BOUNDARIES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVES TO PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HARD TO PICK OUT WHEN THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE...BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD DRY.

NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS /OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AREAS/ ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVING
ALREADY WORKED THE KPIR TERMINAL OVER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING..WITH THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS NOW
HOLDING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. THAT SAID...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING/MOVING UP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OUT OF
WYOMING...PLACING THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS INTO ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY.

CONTINUING TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS FOR THESE REASONS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
456 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-251000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
456 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012 /356 AM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

TMT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
126 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

SDZ015-250715-
DEWEY-
1226 AM MDT WED JUL 25 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
DEWEY COUNTY UNTIL 115 AM MDT...

AT 1223 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUPREE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE LANTRY...EAGLE BUTTE...
ISABEL...GREEN GRASS...PARADE...FIRESTEEL...LITTLE MOREAU REC AREA
AND TIMBER LAKE.

WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

PARKIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
201 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-250745-
BIG STONE-ROBERTS-TRAVERSE-
201 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN BIG
STONE...NORTHERN ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 159 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WHITE ROCK TO 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WHEATON TO WILMOT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE WHEATON...TINTAH...BARRY...
DUMONT...COLLIS...CHARLESVILLE...GRACEVILLE...CLINTON AND JOHNSON.

WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

PARKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
221 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND GST     12 WNW EAGLE BUTTE      45.07N 101.47W
07/25/2012  M58 MPH          DEWEY              SD   MESONET

            TIME ESTIMATED

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200299

TMT