Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ON AREA RADARS FROM THIS
CONVECTION...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED ONE ALSO VERY OBVIOUS ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE
TO GROVE. THESE BOUNDARIES MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC. LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE NORTH OF THIS
MAIN BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTH OF IT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAYS...BUT STILL WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS CONSISTENTLY NEAR 105 FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE
WARMEST DAY THIS COMING WEEK WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY...WHEN
TEMPERATURES IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GOING
HEAT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD SO NO CHANGES THERE. HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE WEEKEND...AFTER A
DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT SLIGHT COOLING MAY OCCUR NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT STILL NO SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN OR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 104  80 105 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   78 104  78 104 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   80 103  79 103 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   73 102  74 105 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   73  98  73  98 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   72  96  73  97 /  30  20  10  10
MKO   76 104  76 104 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   74 100  75 101 /  40  20  10  10
F10   77 104  76 105 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   80 102  77 103 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ069.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION
ACROSS KANSAS HAS SLIPPED INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER
LITTLE RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED DESPITE A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT.

TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO AROUND 113 DEGREE RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST REMAIN IN EFFECT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES OVER FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER DANGERS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO CURING FUELS...MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. AFTER
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MOST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. $$

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
425 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSE INOLA             36.11N 95.49W
07/24/2011  M59 MPH          ROGERS             OK   MESONET

&&

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
428 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

OKZ075-076-242200-
LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
428 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN LE FLORE AND EASTERN LATIMER

AT 428 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
BENGAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BENGAL...SUMMERFIELD AND TALIMENA
STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3486 9475 3468 9490 3483 9513 3498 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 304DEG 5KT 3485 9498

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
447 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

OKZ075-076-242215-
LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
447 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN LE FLORE AND EASTERN LATIMER

AT 448 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PANOLA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BENGAL...PANOLA...RED OAK AND
TALIHINA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3496 9531 3506 9518 3506 9511 3487 9488
      3472 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 318DEG 12KT 3495 9515