Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS FAR ERN OK AND
NW AR WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS...AND POSSIBLY CIGS BRIEFLY FALLING
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ACROSS KFYV/KXNA AND KFSM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE LINE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...ROUGHLY AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST... AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DECREASE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN OK TONIGHT.
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO WILL NOT OPT FOR A
TEMPO OR PROB GROUPS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. EVEN WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS
MUCH AS FORECAST AND RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER SURFACE BASED
STORMS WILL INDEED DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSUME THAT SOME SURFACE
BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TO OUR WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S...AND THAT THESE STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO
ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR AREA NEAR OR AFTER
SUNSET. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...WITH A LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY AND
WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLER NORTH
OF THE FRONT...AND IN FACT MAY BE WARMER THAN TODAY IN SOME PLACES
DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THIS OCCURS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH...HOT DAYS AND VERY MILD NIGHTS WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY
NEXT MONDAY AS WELL.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE MAY FINALLY TAKE
PLACE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SINCE MAY WILL
BE THE RESULT AS UPPER TROUGHING REPLACES THE RIDGING WE HAVE
SEEN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. CHANCE POPS WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH THE GFS MOS LOOKING GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WENT WARMER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS FRIDAY MORNING...AND WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...23

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

OKZ049-150515-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
1138 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 1139 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
DARWIN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ANTLERS...DELA...MOYERS...KOSOMA...DARWIN...
KELLOND...EUBANKS AND DUNBAR.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3440 9578 3450 9551 3417 9550 3417 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 250DEG 32KT 3425 9583

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

OKZ049-053-150515-
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CHOCTAW AND SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 1143 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BOSWELL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BOSWELL...UNGER...SOPER...KENT AND
ANTLERS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3401 9595 3412 9595 3413 9596 3416 9596
      3417 9593 3416 9579 3421 9578 3427 9560
      3402 9555 3397 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 250DEG 32KT 3409 9589

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

ARZ001-150515-
BENTON AR-
1144 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN BENTON

AT 1145 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BENTONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALNUT HILL...HILL TOP...
BENTONVILLE...PEA RIDGE...GATEWAY...AVOCA...BELLA VISTA AND GARFIELD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3639 9388 3638 9389 3634 9420 3645 9427
      3650 9415 3650 9388 3639 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 247DEG 43KT 3642 9412

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1200 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

ARZ001-010-150545-
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
1200 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON

AT 1158 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SILOAM SPRINGS TO SUMMERS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS BENTON COUNTY FROM AROUND
SILOAM SPRINGS TO GARFIELD.  THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3651 9398 3603 9396 3592 9451 3624 9457
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 251DEG 31KT 3618 9452 3597 9448

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1204 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

OKZ049-053-150530-
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
1204 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA

AT 1204 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CLAYTON LAKE STATE PARK TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KOSOMA
TO 5 MILES WEST OF KENT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3402 9590 3416 9584 3417 9579 3430 9579
      3448 9572 3464 9528 3455 9496 3450 9498
      3450 9504 3438 9504 3423 9511 3423 9514
      3418 9514 3397 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 270DEG 35KT 3455 9524 3431 9552
          3414 9566