Severe Thunderstorm Warning 386, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN OK TONIGHT.
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO WILL NOT OPT FOR A
TEMPO OR PROB GROUPS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. EVEN WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS
MUCH AS FORECAST AND RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER SURFACE BASED
STORMS WILL INDEED DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSUME THAT SOME SURFACE
BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TO OUR WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S...AND THAT THESE STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO
ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR AREA NEAR OR AFTER
SUNSET. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...WITH A LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY AND
WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLER NORTH
OF THE FRONT...AND IN FACT MAY BE WARMER THAN TODAY IN SOME PLACES
DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THIS OCCURS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH...HOT DAYS AND VERY MILD NIGHTS WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY
NEXT MONDAY AS WELL.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE MAY FINALLY TAKE
PLACE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SINCE MAY WILL
BE THE RESULT AS UPPER TROUGHING REPLACES THE RIDGING WE HAVE
SEEN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. CHANCE POPS WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH THE GFS MOS LOOKING GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WENT WARMER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS FRIDAY MORNING...AND WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING... AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS... ALONG
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT STALLS... AND THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA.  HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
641 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ054>076-150145-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-
DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-
MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...PAWHUSKA...
BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...PAWNEE...TULSA...
CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...
TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...SALLISAW...
MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
641 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...DECEPTIVE LIGHTNING RISK THIS EVENING...

WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ARE SCATTERED AROUND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING.

THE LIGHTNING DANGER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENINGS WEAK STORMS
WILL BE DECEPTIVE TO THOSE OUTDOORS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN OR
EVEN LOW CLOUD COVER IS OCCURRING WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...SO A
FLASH OF LIGHTNING WITH THESE MORE BENIGN LOOKING CLOUDS WILL BE
UNEXPECTED AND WILL CATCH PEOPLE OFF GUARD.

PEOPLE OUTDOORS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND OBSERVE LIGHTNING SAFETY RULES
AROUND EVEN THE WEAKEST LOOKING SHOWERS. FALLING RAIN DROPS SEEN
STREAMING DOWN FROM THESE HIGHER CLOUDS MAY BE YOUR ONLY CLUE THAT
THERE IS A LIGHTNING RISK.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH MORE ROBUST STORM CELLS DEVELOPING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN PART OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TULSA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
848 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

OKZ054-059-064-150215-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
848 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND EASTERN PAWNEE

AT 847 PM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM HOMINY TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF BLACKBURN TO HALLETT TO 12 MILES
WEST OF QUAY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE STORMS WERE INTENSIFYING SO RESIDENTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3625 9667 3636 9668 3649 9642 3639 9600
      3638 9600 3617 9629 3600 9662 3615 9663
      3615 9681 3616 9682 3619 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 286DEG 19KT 3640 9639 3634 9657
          3623 9656 3611 9688

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     HAIL             2 S DRUMRIGHT           35.96N 96.60W
06/14/2011  E1.75 INCH       CREEK              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JDS