Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST... AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DECREASE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN OK TONIGHT.
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO WILL NOT OPT FOR A
TEMPO OR PROB GROUPS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. EVEN WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS
MUCH AS FORECAST AND RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER SURFACE BASED
STORMS WILL INDEED DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSUME THAT SOME SURFACE
BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TO OUR WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S...AND THAT THESE STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO
ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR AREA NEAR OR AFTER
SUNSET. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...WITH A LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY AND
WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLER NORTH
OF THE FRONT...AND IN FACT MAY BE WARMER THAN TODAY IN SOME PLACES
DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THIS OCCURS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH...HOT DAYS AND VERY MILD NIGHTS WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY
NEXT MONDAY AS WELL.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE MAY FINALLY TAKE
PLACE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SINCE MAY WILL
BE THE RESULT AS UPPER TROUGHING REPLACES THE RIDGING WE HAVE
SEEN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. CHANCE POPS WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH THE GFS MOS LOOKING GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WENT WARMER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS FRIDAY MORNING...AND WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING... AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS... ALONG
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT STALLS... AND THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA.  HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1050 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

OKZ057-058-063-150415-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-OTTAWA OK-
1050 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CRAIG...NORTHERN DELAWARE AND OTTAWA

AT 1050 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF WELCH TO 4 MILES WEST OF KETCHUM...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...ZENA...CLEORA...GROVE...BERNICE...MIAMI...
COMMERCE...AFTON...FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...
PEORIA...QUAPAW...CARDIN...KETCHUM...BLUEJACKET...WELCH...BERNICE
STATE PARK...TWIN BRIDGES STATE PARK AND HONEY CREEK STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3697 9461 3648 9463 3650 9500 3651 9501
      3651 9513 3698 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 270DEG 35KT 3687 9499 3653 9504

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1056 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

ARZ001-010-OKZ063-150445-
BENTON AR-DELAWARE OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1056 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE

AT 1056 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF LAKE EUCHA STATE PARK TO 4 MILES
NORTH OF COLCORD TO 3 MILES WEST OF NATURAL FALLS STATE PARK...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3650 9411 3633 9409 3608 9413 3614 9456
      3616 9456 3617 9476 3632 9479 3649 9477
      3651 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 269DEG 36KT 3648 9470 3632 9467
          3617 9471

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1059 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

OKZ063-068-069-150430-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-
1059 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHERN ADAIR

AT 1059 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF LEACH TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF LEACH TO 10
MILES WEST OF SCRAPER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WESTVILLE...BALLARD...
WATTS...OAKS...LEACH...TWIN OAKS...KANSAS...COLCORD...WEST SILOAM
SPRINGS...SCRAPER AND NATURAL FALLS STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3626 9459 3611 9456 3596 9453 3606 9505
      3617 9497 3628 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 276DEG 35KT 3624 9489 3616 9489
          3606 9497

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRYOR                   36.31N 95.32W
06/14/2011                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWNED...INCLUDING ONE POWER POLE. METAL SHED
            BLOWN INTO ROAD.

&&

RBD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

OKZ070-074>076-150445-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
1118 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL...WESTERN LE FLORE AND LATIMER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE

AT 1118 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WHITEFIELD TO PANOLA TO 5 MILES
WEST OF YANUSH...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...STIGLER...LEQUIRE...
LEWISVILLE...KINTA...WHITEFIELD...KEOTA...KANIMA...WILBURTON...
YANUSH...BENGAL...DAMON...PANOLA...RED OAK...TALIHINA...
SUMMERFIELD...FANSHAWE...MILTON...BRIARTOWN AND TALIMENA STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3469 9548 3492 9533 3530 9537 3530 9483
      3492 9484 3469 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 270DEG 37KT 3523 9526 3492 9521
          3473 9536