Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... GENERALLY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
ANY SITE. THIS HAS BEEN COVERED WITH TEMPO GROUPS. SITE KBVO WILL
ALSO HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... WHICH
HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH PROB30 GROUPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION... LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS OVERHEAD. HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS HOUR. AM
STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR VICINITY
OF STALLED BOUNDARY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. OTHERWISE...PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW
LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY
EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 AND HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY PUTTING
AN END TO THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS
IN THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE MID-WEST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE SEVERE THREAT EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING. IN ADDITION... A FEW
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION COULD MOVE INTO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE... ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
241 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

ARZ029-112015-
SEBASTIAN AR-
241 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN

AT 242 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PATTERSON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LIBERTY...PATTERSON...HARTFORD...
ARKOLA...HUNTINGTON...MIDLAND AND MANSFIELD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3495 9429 3494 9435 3495 9436 3494 9438
      3494 9441 3493 9444 3506 9444 3513 9427
      3501 9422 3497 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 250DEG 8KT 3497 9443