Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
EVENING CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT NE OK SITES THROUGH
06Z WITH DECAYING STORMS POSSIBLY PERSISTING ACROSS INTO FAR NW
ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT CEILING IMPACTS...WITH AVIATION CONCERNS FOCUSED ON THE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS
FARTHER SOUTH TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLY IMPACTING
ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SE KS DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK. THE LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM KAY COUNTY NORTH
TOWARD WICHITA. SOME WEAKER CONVERGENCE IS NOTED EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THERE ALONG THE FRONT. ALOFT...A SUBTLE VORT MAX IS
NOTED ON WV IMAGERY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KS. HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH FRONT ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIKELY
OVERCOME CAP AND LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR LATER ON THIS
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND HIGHER LCLS WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT IF SUPERCELLS
DO EVOLVE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. SFC BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY
06Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER ON SATURDAY. AN
MCS MAY ORGANIZE FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EARLIER AND
TRACK ACROSS KS AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN OK SATURDAY NIGHT. I
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY AS BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT IT.

THE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH ON SUNDAY AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE OVER
ERN OK AND NW AR. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR A
FEW DAYS. THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A
STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC AS THE ECMWF...HOWEVER WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA IT
IS WORTH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE BEYOND WEDNESDAY IN HOW THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE RIDGING ALOFT AND A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGETS NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IS COOLER AND WETTER AS A
RESULT. SINCE THIS IS MY FIRST FORECAST SHIFT...I WILL ELECT TO
LEAVE THE DRY FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE GAP IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  87  72  95 /  30  40  50  10
FSM   73  90  72  94 /  10  40  20  10
MLC   71  91  71  94 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  83  68  96 /  40  40  50  10
FYV   67  85  67  89 /  20  50  30  20
BYV   66  84  66  87 /  20  50  30  20
MKO   70  89  69  94 /  20  40  30  10
MIO   67  85  68  92 /  50  40  50  20
F10   70  89  70  95 /  20  40  30  10
HHW   71  93  70  93 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
454 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
454 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...7 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING. A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD ENHANCE WIND SHEAR ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DECREASE BY LATE TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
708 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

OKZ054-110045-
OSAGE OK-
708 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OSAGE

AT 708 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAINOLA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
APPERSON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SHIDLER...APPERSON...WEBB CITY...
FORAKER AND GRAINOLA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9642 3657 9688 3657 9690 3659 9691
      3658 9700 3659 9706 3668 9707 3670 9705
      3669 9694 3675 9689 3675 9683 3679 9679
      3679 9676 3701 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 250DEG 26KT 3699 9674 3660 9714

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