Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
946 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION IS ON THE DOWN TREND HOWEVER...AS IF OFTEN THE
CASE WITH SUCH EXTREME CAPE...STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS CAN STABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY.
ALSO...THE TORNADIC THREAT HAS DECREASED BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
PRESENT SHOULD A STRONGER UPDRAFT DEVELOP THUS THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT STORMS ARE LESS APPARENT IN THE
MOST RECENT DATA...WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT LIKELY FAVORED WELL WEST
OF THE AREA THUS WILL REDUCE OVERNIGHT POPS NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  81  69  85 /  20  70  80  20
FSM   68  84  68  84 /  60  50  50  20
MLC   71  82  71  84 /  40  30  40  20
BVO   68  79  68  85 /  20  60  80  20
FYV   66  78  67  81 /  60  50  70  30
BYV   64  79  64  81 /  60  60  80  30
MKO   69  81  68  83 /  40  50  60  20
MIO   65  80  67  83 /  30  60  80  30
F10   70  81  70  85 /  30  50  50  20
HHW   70  84  69  84 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
504 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING... INCLUDING THE
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ANY TIME.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ANY TIME.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE
SITUATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE... THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

AS STORMS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT... THE THREAT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE
OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND... LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOIST AND
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRYLINE AND A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER. DISCRETE STORMS WILL POSE THE RISK OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL
INTO CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL BY
MONDAY NIGHT... MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS TRACK OVER
AREAS AFFECTED BY PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF STORMS.

A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SURGING FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS HIGH... AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE... ALONG WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIKELY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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