Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED STORMS MAY IMPACT SITES EAST OF INTERSTATE 44 THROUGH
LATE EVENING...WITH LOW CEILINGS AGAIN DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WEST OF
THE AREA AND DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NE OK AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
SCENARIO. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS RISING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DRYLINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN KS INTO SWRN OK...WITH AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (CAPES PUSHING 5000 J/KG) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY IGNITED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
SERN KS...AND EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP FARTHER
S AND E ACROSS NERN OK AND PERHAPS NWRN AR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH COULD IMPACT PARTS OF SERN OK.
GIVEN THE VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED...VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS NE OK LATER TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
AS A STRONGER BAND OF MID-LEVEL WINDS PUNCHES E. POSSIBLE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN DRYLINE AND ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW(S)
COULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOW THE MORNING MCS EVOLVES
AND WHERE ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES SETUP WILL BE CRUCIAL
IN DETERMINING THE BEST LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE FINALLY EJECTS E INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. CONDITIONS MAY REMAINED CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE
DEEPENING SFC LOW AND ALONG THE TRAILING DRYLINE. COMBINATION OF
STRONG INSTABILITY/50-60KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET/40-50KT SLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO ERN OK
DURING THE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY NW AR.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH E OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
ERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER/COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  81  69  85 /  40  70  80  20
FSM   68  84  68  84 /  30  50  50  20
MLC   71  82  71  84 /  40  30  40  20
BVO   68  79  68  85 /  40  60  80  20
FYV   66  78  67  81 /  40  50  70  30
BYV   66  79  64  81 /  40  60  80  30
MKO   69  81  68  83 /  40  50  60  20
MIO   68  80  67  83 /  40  60  80  30
F10   70  81  70  85 /  40  50  50  20
HHW   70  84  69  84 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
504 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING... INCLUDING THE
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ANY TIME.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ANY TIME.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE
SITUATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE... THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

AS STORMS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT... THE THREAT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE
OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND... LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOIST AND
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRYLINE AND A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER. DISCRETE STORMS WILL POSE THE RISK OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL
INTO CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL BY
MONDAY NIGHT... MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS TRACK OVER
AREAS AFFECTED BY PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF STORMS.

A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SURGING FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS HIGH... AS A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE... ALONG WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIKELY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
734 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TORNADO          3 S BERNICE             36.57N 94.92W
05/22/2011                   DELAWARE           OK   PUBLIC

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES. BOAT DOCKS SEVERELY
            DAMAGED.

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
753 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             9 N BRYANT              35.52N 96.06W
05/22/2011  E0.88 INCH       OKMULGEE           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
753 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

OKZ067-068-230130-
CHEROKEE OK-WAGONER OK-
753 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN WAGONER

AT 754 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF WAGONER TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF HULBERT...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...TAHLEQUAH...HULBERT...LOST CITY AND WAGONER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3589 9489 3577 9511 3578 9513 3581 9513
      3581 9518 3600 9548 3605 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 264DEG 40KT 3596 9527 3584 9508

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
758 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     HAIL             3 W SCRAPER             36.09N 94.90W
05/22/2011  E2.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
759 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             PEGGS                   36.08N 95.10W
05/22/2011  E2.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
802 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TSTM WND GST     MUSKOGEE                35.75N 95.37W
05/22/2011  M60 MPH          MUSKOGEE           OK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

JBM