Areal Flood Warning 31, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1258 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

..FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...

 SEVERE STORMS AGAIN LATER TODAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
  HAIL... AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA....NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING

DISCUSSION...
TRAINING CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AN HAS RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER WEST...CLOSER THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LAID DOWN BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION WILL ALSO AID AS A TRIGGER AS WELL. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE TORNADIC STORMS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN A HIGH CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS LATER ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE ALREADY SATURATED OR
FLOODED AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
                        POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A HIGH END SEVERE EVENT IS IN THE WORKS FOR TUESDAY AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS POISED TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
TONIGHT...AND THEN EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS THIS
ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH. THE LIFT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OPTIMALLY TIMED FOR PEAK HEATING ALONG THE
DRYLINE...WHICH WILL SET UP OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND
BECOME SEVERE...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE ORGANIZED...ROTATING STORMS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TUESDAY EVENING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS....ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHERE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
156 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HAIL             QUAPAW                  36.95N 94.79W
05/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   POST OFFICE

            MOSTLY DIME SIZED BUT A FEW AS BIG AS A QUARTER.

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

ARZ010-019-232030-
CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
306 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON

AT 306 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BRENTWOOD TO STRICKLER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
BIDVILLE...WINSLOW...BLACKBURN...STRICKLER...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...
WYOLA...ARNETT AND MOUNT GAYLER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3573 9396 3571 9397 3571 9443 3584 9438
      3593 9395 3576 9396 3576 9395 3573 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 273DEG 20KT 3583 9411 3578 9433

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MIAMI                   36.87N 94.88W
05/23/2011                   OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ADDITIONAL ROAD CLOSURES IN MIAMI INCLUDE ELM
            STREET...11TH E NE...H NW...BJ TUNNEL...HIGHWAY 69A AT
            BUFFALO RUN...5TH B SW...20TH K SW...HIGHWAY 10 AT
            TURNPIKE CHRYSLER...AND TRUCK ROUTE.

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
336 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 E NOWATA              36.70N 95.49W
05/23/2011                   NOWATA             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY COUNTY ROADS FLOODED ESPECIALLY IN EAST AND
            SOUTHEAST PART OF COUNTY. WATER RESCUE AT HIGHWAY 60 AND
            28 IN EASTERN PART OF COUNTY.

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW EUREKA SPRINGS     36.45N 93.80W
05/23/2011                   CARROLL            AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FFW-39 FLOODING ON ROUTE 187 IN THE VICINITY OF OAK
            RANCH. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

GEW