Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. A BROAD... CONTINUOUS
SWATH OF 3 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIES FROM WESTERN CREEK AND
OKFUSKEE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN BENTON AND
CARROLL COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE WEATHER REGIME THAT
HAS PRODUCED THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY... WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SOIL HAS BECOME SATURATED AND AS
RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO ADD UP... FLOODING ISSUES WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY... WHICH WILL GIVE THE PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT A PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER... UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH THE INCREASED UPPER AND
LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICS... CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GREATLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE NEARLY CONTINUOUS
THUNDERSTORM AND RAINFALL ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SWINGING ONE FINAL LOBE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. THIS LOBE
AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL QUICKLY GENERATE A SURFACE FRONT THAT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION... INTERACTING WITH THE REMAINING LOW
LEVEL  MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE STORMS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

LESS CLOUDINESS... WARMER TEMPERATURES... AND A MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  75  49  70 /  80  70  20  10
FSM   63  77  57  74 /  70  80  40  30
MLC   65  79  54  73 /  70  50  30  10
BVO   57  73  47  68 /  90  70  20  10
FYV   63  75  52  70 /  80  80  40  20
BYV   60  76  51  70 /  90  90  50  20
MKO   61  75  50  73 /  80  70  30  20
MIO   59  73  47  69 /  80  80  30  10
F10   63  78  51  70 /  80  60  30  20
HHW   66  80  59  81 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
OR DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING...WHERE CAP STRENGTH REMAINS MINIMIZED. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR OR ON THE BOUNDARY COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT...AT
LEAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 4 TO 5
INCHES IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING AND PROLONGED
PERIODS OF AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN...WILL REMAIN IN
FLOOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED. EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD MONITOR ANY AREAS
THAT ARE PRONE TO FLOODING...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
BOTH ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR TORNADOES WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE GROUND HAS BECOME MORE SATURATED. FURTHER DETAILS
SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH /OKCFFATSA/ THAT HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BEGGS                   35.74N 96.07W
04/24/2011                   OKMULGEE           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL CARS STRANDED IN HIGH WATER

&&

MAT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
444 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKZ071-073-242215-
MCINTOSH OK-PITTSBURG OK-
444 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MCINTOSH AND NORTHERN PITTSBURG

AT 444 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
SCIPIO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HANNA...VERNON...MCALESTER...ARPELAR...
SCIPIO...BLOCKER...CROWDER...INDIANOLA AND CANADIAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3503 9608 3512 9603 3513 9601 3515 9601
      3516 9599 3520 9599 3523 9597 3528 9560
      3493 9554 3493 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 263DEG 25KT 3503 9609

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