Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1202 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND THE
09Z TIME FRAME IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EASTWARD. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE IN TSRA FOR MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF TSRA FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT ATTEMPTED TO HIT THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE TIME
FRAMES WITH THE OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS MAY
AFFECT FSM FOR A SHORT TIME UNTIL 09Z DUE TO DECAYING
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS FORECAST. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR
TORNADO REPORT WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

FLOODING ALREADY BECOMING A PROBLEM ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF CARROLL COUNTY. EXPECT THAT THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT
AS DEPICTED IN THE QPF GRIDS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF RESPITE WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS EVENING.

TWEAKS WERE MADE TO DEW POINT GRIDS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONVECTION ONGOING
ACROSS NW AR JUST N OF THE BNDRY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN N TX THAT WILL MOVE NEWRD AND AFFECT MLC/FSM AFTER
00Z. S/WV WILL MOVE INTO E OK AFTER 06Z THAT WILL DRAMATICALLY
INCR AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS...AND BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TSRA TO THE TERMINALS. NW AR TERMINALS WILL SEE TSRA FOR MUCH OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...WITH IFR CONDS LIKELY IN HEAVIER
STORMS...ESPECIALLY FYV/XNA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BNDRY AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION TO BEGIN. THE LATEST
IN A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA. IN ADDITION... MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
WITH GENERALLY SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF CELLS... FLASH
FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AND WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA SHORTLY.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
CONTAINING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A GOOD SUPPLY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. TO COMPLICATE ISSUES... IT APPEARS THAT A DEEPER UPPER
TROUGH FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION BEFORE THE
PATTERN CHANGES. HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN
IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... DEPENDING ON THE
VARYING POSITION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
203 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
203 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...PERIODS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
UPPER FLOW TRAVERSE THE AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ENHANCING THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS LAST SHORTWAVE FINALLY USHERS THE
STALLED BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BOUTS OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD COME MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GROUND BECOME MORES SATURATED.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLY RIVER FLOODING

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1051 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-240445-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
1051 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WASHINGTON...CARROLL...BENTON AND MADISON

AT 1049 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY NEAR SPRINGDALE...OVER NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY
NEAR EUREKA SPRINGS...AND OVER CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY NEAR WESLEY.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3612 9340 3612 9346 3609 9346 3608 9343
      3597 9344 3576 9449 3632 9457 3649 9386
      3650 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 240DEG 35KT 3613 9427

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1054 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     HAIL             TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
04/23/2011  M2.50 INCH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1055 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     HAIL             SAVOY                   36.11N 94.33W
04/23/2011  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SFP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1107 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

OKZ064-065-240500-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
1107 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 1108 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MILFAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WELTY...BRISTOW...MILFAY...SLICK...
DEPEW AND KELLYVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3599 9637 3601 9619 3566 9619 3558 9662
      3583 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0408Z 240DEG 45KT 3569 9663

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

ARZ010-OKZ069-240600-
ADAIR OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1216 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN ADAIR

AT 1217 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
SUMMERS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HICKS...ODELL...WALNUT GROVE...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINSLOW...WEST FORK...LINCOLN...PRAIRIE GROVE...
FARMINGTON...BLACKBURN...HOGEYE...STRICKLER...MORROW...BRENTWOOD...
WOOLSEY...WYOLA...CLYDE...CANEHILL...SULPHUR CITY...SUMMERS...BLACK
OAK...GREENLAND...RHEA...VINEY GROVE AND CINCINNATI.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3612 9401 3576 9406 3576 9457 3606 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 257DEG 37KT 3593 9447

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKZ054-060-064-240715-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-TULSA OK-
150 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHERN CREEK AND CENTRAL TULSA

AT 150 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
KELLYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...GRAY...SAND SPRINGS...
JENKS...GLENPOOL...KIEFER...KELLYVILLE AND SAPULPA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3596 9655 3617 9631 3617 9626 3623 9625
      3630 9617 3598 9585 3585 9643
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 237DEG 50KT 3597 9638