Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Tulsa, OK

441 
WWUS54 KTSA 241111
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKC061-077-121-241121-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-110424T1115Z/
HASKELL OK-PITTSBURG OK-LATIMER OK-
611 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN LATIMER...EASTERN
PITTSBURG AND WESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 615 AM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3534 9504 3483 9505 3476 9566 3510 9570
TIME...MOT...LOC 1111Z 247DEG 40KT 3521 9515 3499 9516

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
352 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER UPCOMING...

ONGOING FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BOTH EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER UPTICK TODAY AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED ON AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL BE REPEATEDLY
REPLENISHED WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN DESPITE THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ENSURE AMPLE INSTABILITY FURTHER ENHANCED BY
DAILY HEATING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN NORTHWARD TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE PLACING A LARGER PORTION
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER REPORT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADIC
POTENTIAL REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH IMPACT FLOODING
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NW AR...AND THESE
TYPE OF IMPACTS MAY EXPAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FAR
NW AR WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WAVE ALOFT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AND TRACKING FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE DAY. IT APPEARS
ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING MONDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO MORE WIDESPREAD SURFACE BASED STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS POSING
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS CONVECTION SPREADS EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT MAKING A
SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE DAY OF DAYS...AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER WAVE DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE
PRESSURES QUICKLY FALL OVER WEST TEXAS. THE MONDAY NIGHT FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND LIKELY SPREAD THE
WARM SECTOR INTO AT LEAST FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST WIND
PROFILES ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SURFACE LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE DETAILS
OF THE THIS EVENT...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IMPACTING NOT ONLY OUR FORECAST
AREA BUT MANY LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

COLD CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH...WITH A BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  62  76  50 /  90  90  70  20
FSM   76  64  77  59 /  80  80  80  30
MLC   75  65  79  55 /  80  70  50  20
BVO   62  57  72  49 /  80  90  70  20
FYV   69  62  75  53 /  90 100  80  40
BYV   68  61  74  54 /  90 100  90  50
MKO   71  61  78  53 /  90  90  70  20
MIO   63  60  73  50 /  90  90  80  30
F10   70  64  78  52 /  80  80  60  20
HHW   83  66  81  62 /  60  60  50  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

LONG TERM....07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS
THROUGH MID-WEEK...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING AND AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN CONCERN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND NOON.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO WHILE SMALL DOES EXIST.THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RAMP
UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE CONCERN
AS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AREA WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE FINALLY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SERIES OF POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOTH ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS WE MOVE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE GROUND IS BECOMING MORE SATURATED
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FURTHER DETAILS SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
/OKCFFATSA/ THAT HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

ARZ010-OKZ069-240600-
ADAIR OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1216 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN ADAIR

AT 1217 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
SUMMERS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HICKS...ODELL...WALNUT GROVE...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINSLOW...WEST FORK...LINCOLN...PRAIRIE GROVE...
FARMINGTON...BLACKBURN...HOGEYE...STRICKLER...MORROW...BRENTWOOD...
WOOLSEY...WYOLA...CLYDE...CANEHILL...SULPHUR CITY...SUMMERS...BLACK
OAK...GREENLAND...RHEA...VINEY GROVE AND CINCINNATI.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3612 9401 3576 9406 3576 9457 3606 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 257DEG 37KT 3593 9447

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKZ054-060-064-240715-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-TULSA OK-
150 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHERN CREEK AND CENTRAL TULSA

AT 150 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
KELLYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...GRAY...SAND SPRINGS...
JENKS...GLENPOOL...KIEFER...KELLYVILLE AND SAPULPA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3596 9655 3617 9631 3617 9626 3623 9625
      3630 9617 3598 9585 3585 9643
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 237DEG 50KT 3597 9638