River Flood Warning 12, NWS Tulsa, OK

233 
WGUS84 KTSA 260113
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
813 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
  SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
OKC115-260913-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110427T0000Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.110425T2039Z.110426T0600Z.110426T1800Z.NO/
813 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  700 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.73 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE WILL CONTINUE RISING TO 
  NEAR 18.3 FEET TUESDAY BEFORE DAWN. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MODERATE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS WITH 
  RIVERVIEW PARK EXPERIENCING MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.  LOW LYING 
  PLACES AROUND MIAMI MAY BE CUT OFF FROM EASY ACCESS.

$$

OKC115-260913-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110429T1600Z/
/QUAO2.2.ER.110425T1757Z.110427T0000Z.110429T1000Z.NO/
813 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  700 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.42 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW WILL CONTINUE RISING TO 
  NEAR 26.6 FEET TUESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...RECREATIONAL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GAGE 
  SITE ARE INUNDATED TO A DEPTH OF SEVERAL FEET.

$$

760 
WGUS84 KTSA 260758
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
258 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
  SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
OKC115-261558-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110426T2142Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.110425T2039Z.110426T0700Z.110426T1542Z.NO/
258 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  200 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.68 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING BUT THE RIVER IS FALLING.
* FORECAST...THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MODERATE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS WITH 
  RIVERVIEW PARK EXPERIENCING MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.  LOW LYING 
  PLACES AROUND MIAMI MAY BE CUT OFF FROM EASY ACCESS.

$$

OKC115-261557-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110429T1248Z/
/QUAO2.2.ER.110425T1757Z.110427T0000Z.110429T0648Z.NO/
258 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  200 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.23 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW WILL CONTINUE RISING TO 
  NEAR 25.4 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY BEFORE DAWN.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...RECREATIONAL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GAGE 
  SITE ARE INUNDATED TO A DEPTH OF SEVERAL FEET.

$$

080 
WGUS84 KTSA 261405
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
  SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
OKC115-262205-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110427T0530Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.110425T2039Z.110426T1300Z.110426T2330Z.NO/
905 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  800 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.96 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING BUT THE RIVER NEAR ITS CREST AND
  IS EXPECTED TO START FALLING.
* FORECAST...THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MODERATE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS WITH 
  RIVERVIEW PARK EXPERIENCING MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.  LOW LYING 
  PLACES AROUND MIAMI MAY BE CUT OFF FROM EASY ACCESS.

$$

OKC115-262205-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110429T1000Z/
/QUAO2.2.ER.110425T1757Z.110427T0600Z.110429T0400Z.NO/
905 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  800 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.59 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW WILL CONTINUE RISING TO 
  NEAR 25.9 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...RECREATIONAL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GAGE 
  SITE ARE INUNDATED TO A DEPTH OF SEVERAL FEET.

$$

093 
WGUS84 KTSA 261918
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
218 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
  SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
OKC115-270318-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110427T0749Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.110425T2039Z.110426T1500Z.110427T0149Z.NO/
218 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  100 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.88 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING BUT THE RIVER IS FALLING.
* FORECAST...THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MODERATE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS WITH 
  RIVERVIEW PARK EXPERIENCING MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.  LOW LYING 
  PLACES AROUND MIAMI MAY BE CUT OFF FROM EASY ACCESS.

$$

OKC115-270318-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110428T1800Z/
/QUAO2.2.ER.110425T1757Z.110427T0000Z.110428T1200Z.NO/
218 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  100 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.85 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW WILL CONTINUE RISING TO 
  NEAR 24.9 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...PARK AND RECREATIONAL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM 
  THE GAGE SITE EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING.

$$

798 
WGUS84 KTSA 270141
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
841 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
  SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
OKC115-270941-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110427T1333Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.110425T2039Z.110426T1500Z.110427T0733Z.NO/
841 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  700 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.16 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING BUT THE RIVER IS FALLING.
* FORECAST...THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DAWN.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...MINOR AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS.  
  RIVERVIEW PARK EXPERIENCES MINOR FLOODING.

$$

OKC115-270941-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110429T0200Z/
/QUAO2.2.ER.110425T1757Z.110427T0030Z.110428T2000Z.NO/
841 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  800 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.09 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY  
  AROUND 25.1 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING
  WEDNESDAY BEFORE DAWN AND THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...RECREATIONAL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GAGE 
  SITE ARE INUNDATED TO A DEPTH OF SEVERAL FEET.

$$

063 
WGUS84 KTSA 270744
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
  SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
OKC115-271319-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110427T1319Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.110425T2039Z.110426T1500Z.110427T0719Z.NO/
244 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE.
* UNTIL THIS MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  200 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.13 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY BEFORE DAWN .
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS. LOW LYING 
  AREAS IN RIVERVIEW PARK EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.

$$

OKC115-271544-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110428T1821Z/
/QUAO2.2.ER.110425T1757Z.110427T0030Z.110428T1221Z.NO/
244 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  200 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.87 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING BUT THE RIVER IS FALLING.
* FORECAST...THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...PARK AND RECREATIONAL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM 
  THE GAGE SITE EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING.

$$

569 
WGUS84 KTSA 271255
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
755 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
OKC115-271325-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110427T1319Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.110425T2039Z.110426T1500Z.110427T0723Z.NO/
755 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE.
* AT  700 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.36 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BEFORE DAWN .
* FORECAST...THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE WILL CONTINUE FALLING AND
  REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER IN RIVERVIEW
  PARK ARE THREATENED BY HIGH WATER...AND FASTER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. 
  USE EXTRA CAUTION OR AVOID RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES NEAR THE RIVER. 
  INTERESTS NEAR THE RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER 
  FORECASTS. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INSERT TORNADO WATCH AND TO TWEAK POPS A
BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE LOW OVER I-35 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OK NEAR THE RED RIVER. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE
LOW TO JUST SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND THEN BENDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO SW AR...WHERE OUTFLOW FROM AN EARLY MORNING MCS IS
HOLDING BACK NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR OKMULGEE INTO NW ARK. THESE
STORMS ARE TRAINING OVER AREAS THAT ARE SATURATED...AND WHERE
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE AT RECORD LEVELS.

ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS NOW NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. WITH STORMS ALREADY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE...A TORNADO WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR MUCH OF SE
OK AND W CNTRL AR.

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION...SO POPS WERE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY MAINLY TO
THE WEST AND NORTH OF TULSA.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. ALL AREA
TAF SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM OVER THE PAST HOUR IN VICINITY OF
AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ELEVATED INSTABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK
OF LARGE HAIL...WHILE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND ONLY
WORSEN ANY ONGOING FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED ALONG THE AXIS OF OBSERVED HEAVIEST RAINS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE EXPECTED SCENARIO IS
FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE STORMS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
AREA. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK NORTHWARD LATER
THIS MORNING AS STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THE
LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE KEY IN MARKING THE AREAS
MOST LIKELY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT FURTHER THAN THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR...WITH THE TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ALSO CAUSING
ISSUES IN DEFINING THE FRONTAL ZONE. LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL ATTAIN HIGHER INSTABILITIES AND PROVIDE A CORRIDOR
FOR SUPERCELLS ORIGINATING OVER NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THEY WILL
PRODUCE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPERIENCING SEVERE FLOODING WILL BE
PRONE TO A RAPID ONSET OF WORSENING CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVIER
RAINS DEVELOP.

THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY MID
EVENING ENDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A
PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE STALLING...AND WORKING NORTHWARD ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. HOW FAR
NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT ON TUESDAY WILL MARK THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING WEATHER EVENT WHICH WILL COMMENCE
TUESDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS EVENT HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY VIOLENT
WEATHER...AND WHILE THE WORST WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...INTERESTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS SHOULD MONITOR THIS FORECAST CAREFULLY.

SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS...AND LIKELY A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK PENDING THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  50  68  49 /  80  30  10  50
FSM   77  56  74  55 / 100  50  10  70
MLC   78  54  72  51 /  80  30  10  60
BVO   68  48  66  45 /  80  30  10  50
FYV   74  52  68  49 / 100  50  10  60
BYV   73  52  67  48 / 100  50  10  60
MKO   75  52  69  51 /  90  30  10  70
MIO   71  50  66  46 /  90  50  10  40
F10   75  51  69  50 /  70  30  10  60
HHW   80  57  78  54 /  80  30  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
148 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
147 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODING
TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL
AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
				WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...NORTHEAST...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

 	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EAST OF I-44 AND NORTH OF I-40.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...AND
IS COMBINING WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR ALSO PRESENT...SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
THE AREA WITH GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

MORE RAIN IS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT HARD BY
FLOODING RAINS THAT OCCURRED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS ARE EAST OF I-44 AND NORTH OF I-40. RAINFALL TOTALS IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE EXCEEDED 10 INCHES...WHILE SOME PLACES IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE RECEIVED MORE THAN 8 INCHES...AND ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS HAS CAUSED AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS TO REACH RECORD FLOOD LEVELS IN SOME PLACES. MAJOR TO
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING MAY BE ONGOING OR DEVELOPING AS MORE HEAVY
RAIN FALLS TODAY.

WIND GUSTS MAY REACH NEAR 25 MPH TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL AND RETURN BACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
THAT FALLS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING SITUATION. THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND...DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...TORNADOES OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY RESPONDERS MUST PREPARE FOR IMPACTS STEMMING FROM THE
MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODING...AS WELL AS FROM ROUND AFTER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
138 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

OKZ070-071-251915-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
138 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL MUSKOGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH

AT 138 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF VIVIAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...EUFAULA...CHECOTAH...VIVIAN...
STIDHAM...ONAPA...PIERCE...RENTIESVILLE...OKTAHA...KEEFETON AND
SUMMIT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3575 9540 3563 9516 3523 9563 3533 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 220DEG 41KT 3537 9565

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ARZ010-251930-
WASHINGTON AR-
150 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WASHINGTON

AT 150 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ODELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HICKS...SHADY GROVE...ODELL...WALNUT
GROVE...TUTTLE...MAYFIELD...HARMON...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...
WINSLOW...WEST FORK...LINCOLN...PRAIRIE GROVE...ELKINS...
FARMINGTON...BLACKBURN...HOGEYE...STRICKLER...MORROW...BRENTWOOD...
WOOLSEY...WYOLA...CLYDE...ARNETT...CANEHILL...DURHAM...SULPHUR
CITY...SUMMERS...BLACK OAK...GREENLAND...RHEA...VINEY GROVE...
WEDINGTON...SAVOY...GOSHEN...WHEELER...JOHNSON...SONORA...
TONTITOWN...ELM SPRINGS AND OAK GROVE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3584 9394 3582 9396 3576 9439 3576 9449
      3603 9452 3610 9441 3610 9440 3612 9439
      3615 9434 3621 9426 3620 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 235DEG 32KT 3582 9441

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
158 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

OKZ071-251930-
MCINTOSH OK-
158 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH

AT 158 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
VIVIAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...EUFAULA...CHECOTAH...RAIFORD...
VIVIAN...STIDHAM...ONAPA AND RENTIESVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3556 9557 3556 9536 3548 9534 3523 9565
      3528 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 220DEG 32KT 3531 9566

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
210 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

OKZ057-251945-
CRAIG OK-
210 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL CRAIG

AT 211 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
WHITE OAK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VINITA...WHITE OAK...PYRAMID CORNERS
AND BLUEJACKET.

LAT...LON 3667 9501 3660 9533 3660 9542 3670 9543
      3688 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 239DEG 35KT 3665 9536

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
211 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

OKZ057-251945-
CRAIG OK-
211 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL CRAIG

AT 211 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
WHITE OAK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VINITA...WHITE OAK...PYRAMID CORNERS
AND BLUEJACKET.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3667 9501 3660 9533 3660 9542 3670 9543
      3688 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 239DEG 35KT 3665 9536

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      POCOLA                  35.23N 94.48W
04/25/2011                   LE FLORE           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL RURAL ROADS AROUND POCOLA FLOODED.

0110 PM     HAIL             5 S VINITA              36.57N 95.15W
04/25/2011  E0.88 INCH       CRAIG              OK   PUBLIC

            SOME SLIGHTLY LARGER.

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PANAMA                  35.17N 94.67W
04/25/2011                   LE FLORE           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED. WATER FROM ROAD SIDE DITCHES IS
            OUT OVER SOME ROADS. ROAD GOING EAST OUT OF TOWN CLOSED
            DUE TO HIGH WATER

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EUFAULA                 35.29N 95.58W
04/25/2011                   MCINTOSH           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADS JUST NORTH AND JUST WEST OF EUFAULA.
            SHERIFF OFFICE MAY CLOSE ROAD. WATER HALF WAY UP CAR
            DOORS.

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STILWELL                35.81N 94.63W
04/25/2011                   ADAIR              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER FOR ADAIR COUNTY REPORTED MANY ROADS
            FLOODED. TRAVEL INTO THE COUNTY IS BEING DISCOURAGED. 2
            TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.

&&

SAA